EFL Championship preview and tips: Millwall can bounce back at home, Luton on a roll
- George Dempsey
- 13 March 2023
Ahead of a full midweek programme in the Championship, football expert George Dempsey has picked out a couple of teams likely to be three points better off by the time Wednesday night rolls around.
There are just 10 games to go in yet another wildly entertaining Championship season.
Less than 10 points separate fifth from 12th, Sheffield United have stumbled again and allowed Middlesbrough to close the gap to four points, and Luton Town are officially in the automatic promotion race.
There's a complete fixture list across Tuesday and Wednesday, and every point could be crucial in the promotion and relegation battles.
Lions to savage the Swans
Swansea's form has been horrendous over a ten-game run that has seen them become far too easy to beat and they're conceding goals in large amounts.
Luckily for them, their sole victory over Blackpool has helped keep them 11 points clear of danger and a particularly woeful bottom three.
A trip to Millwall doesn't make things any easier, as they have already lost to the rest of the top six on their travels, with three of those coming in the past month.
The Swans failed to score in any of those games and were again beaten by a top-six side as visitors Middlesbrough beat them 3-1 at the weekend.
Millwall are hanging onto the final playoff position at the moment, just two points clear of Norwich in seventh, so they have all the motivation.
Their home loss to Norwich makes things particularly interesting, but it's also part of the reason they're worth backing here.
Millwall don't lose many home games and they'll want to give a good response to that reversal. They've avoided defeat in 78 of their last 100 home games and they've done well against struggling sides this season.
Dating back to the end of 2020, Millwall have responded to eight of their last nine home losses by winning their next game. They've scored at least two goals in all of them, and a fast start against Swansea could see them crumble.
Back Millwall to win.
The Hatters are on a roll
At the start of the season, you could make a case for six or seven sides in the automatic promotion race, but realistically Luton were a side with no more than an outside chance of the playoffs.
Saturday's 1-0 win over faltering Sheffield United closed the gap to seven points and that's close enough to put them in the race. Things can unravel quickly in the Championship and with 10 games plus the always challenging Easter weekend to come, Luton are in with a shout.
Their form since Christmas would equate to a 98-point season and after their weekend heroics, it would be a waste not to follow that up with a win.
Bristol City had an extremely good start to 2023 but a 2-0 loss at Cardiff was followed by a 0-0 draw at Huddersfield on their travels, and they now seem destined for a mid-table finish.
They have failed to win 13 of their 17 games away from home and this has not been a happy hunting ground for them. They've lost six straight visits to Kenilworth Road, failing to record a win here in 23 years.
Luton are the side with the motivation and that, coupled with their form, should be enough to see them beat Bristol City, even if it will likely be a close-run thing.
Back Luton to win.
Suggested Bets
- Millwall to win
- Luton Town to win
Elsewhere, Queens Park Rangers have been wobbling for a while now, but their midweek trip to Blackpool seems a good opportunity to put an end to their slim relegation fears, whilst potentially confirming Blackpool's.
That will depend on how Rotherham and Cardiff fare, when they host Preston and West Bromwich Albion respectively, but it does feel like the bottom three are there to stay at this point.
Wigan host Coventry and Huddersfield welcome Norwich, and the big prices are all justified. You know there will be surprising results somewhere, but you can't justify pulling the trigger on these struggling sides right now.
- George Dempsey also provides MLS tips as MLS Betting UK 2023 on Tipstrr
