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    Bundesliga play-off preview and tips: Goal-hungry Hamburger SV to test fragile Stuttgart defence

    Sergiu BaltutaSergiu Baltuta31 May 2023
    Serhou Guirassy

    Serhou Guirassy

    The end of the Bundesliga season was full of suspense, and it’s not over quite yet, leaving Tipstrr football expert Sergiu Baltuta to take a closer look at the one remaining outcome to be decided.

    With both the thrilling Bundesliga title race and the relegation issues being decided in the tense final round of games, Stuttgart were left occupying the relegation play-off spot that forces them into a tricky two-legged decider against Hamburger SV, who finished third in the second tier.

    The guests will need to recover from thinking they had achieved automatic promotion for a few minutes, only to discover that rivals Heidenheim overturned a 2-1 deficit with goals in third and ninth minute of stoppage time to earn a miraculous 3-2 win at Regensburg that saw them end up on top of the table.

    Stuttgart, on the other hand, could not manage the same feat, with their own late goal only salvaging an inadequate 1-1 draw at home to Hoffenheim in a game they needed to win to climb above Augsburg.
    Before that they had given themselves hope by following up a 1-1 draw with Bayer Leverkusen with an impressive 4-1 win at Mainz, who ultimately ended Dortmund's championship dream by holding the title hopefuls to a 2-2 draw on Saturday.

    Stuttgart's defence leaked 71 goals in their 34 league games and did not manage a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Bundesliga outings.

    If the lower-tier side can come out firing on all cylinders, then they could well catch their hosts' leaky defence cold early on to put them in the driving seat. 

    Suggested bet: Hamburger SV to score first goal

    With their 1-0 win against Sandhausen, HSV appeared to have assured themselves an automatic promotion spot, with fans even prematurely invading the pitch, since it looked like Heidenheim would not win against Regensburg.

    Lifting themselves back up after that huge disappointment will not be easy, but Hamburg can regroup and reflect on some impressive recent form that saw them lose just three of their last 17 league games (won nine, drew five).

    HSV boasted the best attack in 2. Bundesliga, banging in 70 goals at an average of more than two a game, and finding the net 16 times in their last six matches.

    If the promotion hopefuls can lift themselves after coming so close to not having to endure this play-off, then they look nicely priced at around 7/2 to take a first-leg advantage back to Hamburg for the second game on Monday, and with goals likely, a bolder bettor might be tempted by the more adventurous and potentially lucrative 6/1 option of a Hamburg win with both teams to score.

    Suggested bet: Hamburger SV win and Both Teams To Score

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