Wolverhampton racing tips (1505): Surprise Picture looking sharp, Fly The Nest can swoop in at huge odds

15:05 Wolverhampton: BetMGM: It’s Showtime Handicap (7 furlongs)  

Most of the 10 remaining starters will line up with high hopes, but it’s the top three in the betting that are expected to dominate, with course-distance winner Laura’s Breeze just about edging the early favourite tag after two runner-up spots already this year, the second of which was six days ago under returning jockey Rossa Ryan.

Pessoa looks another strong contender, having landed two of his course-distance successes in the last three weeks, and most recently just four days ago, although that win has earned him an additional five-pound penalty.

Gaining most traction within the Tipstrr camp, however, is Grant Tuer’s Surprise Picture, who has also won over this very trip, and was last seen finishing second over a mile here on Friday.

The six-year-old should relish this shorter, sharper trip under returning in-form jockey Billy Garrity, who had also guided his previous two rides to victory at Chelmsford on Thursday.

Suggested best bet: Surprise Picture in the 15:05 at Wolverhampton

• Tip advised by Model Man on Tipstrr

With the three market leaders all around the 7/2 mark, there is plenty of value lower down the betting, where Mark Loughnane’s Cobh Harbour could be weighted to land a blow on his handicap debut, while Autumn Angel could outrace her 20/1 odds on the strength of her last-time-out win at Southwell 11 days ago.

However, our outsider punt is the pick of Tipstrr each-way specialist Richard Hutchinson, whose Read Between The Lines service provides the following tip analysis for the heftily-priced Fly The Nest:

Tony Carroll’s eight-year-old showed extraordinary consistency in last season's all-weather winter campaign, finishing first or second in 9 of his ten starts, causing his mark to climb from 48 to 64, with his last win off 61 (and his best win off 63).

For such a consistent horse Fly The Nest has been below par in his two runs back this season, finishing down the field on both occasions, and it looked like connections might have brought him back to action undercooked.

Outsider punt: Fly The Nest in the 15:05 at Wolverhampton

His underwhelming return to action could have an upside in bringing him down in the weights before going to war, and his current mark of 62 is lower than his highest winning mark and only a pound higher than his last win, which was over this course and distance last March.

It could be possible that he just needed those two runs to blow away some cobwebs and get race-fit after such a long break, and the booking of Hector Crouch is eye-catching as he has an impressive 50% strike rate of hitting the first four places.

The fact that Fly The Nest has finished first or second in seven of his nine starts at Wolverhampton is also significant, and while he has to overcome a wide draw, we are being compensated with a tasty price and four places easily available in a 12-runner race. 

• Tip and preview provided by Richard Hutchinson who provides racing tips as Read Between The Lines on Tipstrr

 

READ MORE: Wolverhampton racing tips: Best bets for Tuesday January 16