Newcastle best bet: Conditions tailor-made for Queen Of Ipanema

16:30 Newcastle: BetUK: It’s Where The UK Bets Handicap (1 mile 4½ furlongs)

Back up to a more suitable trip today, Queen Of Ipanema can show that she hasn’t stopped improving just yet after producing a new career-best performance to win an 11-runner 11-furlong 0-90 handicap at Southwell on her penultimate outing last month.

That run is significant as far as today’s race is concerned because re-opposing rivals Furzig, Tenerife Sunshine, Valsad and Haveyoumissedme were all well-held behind her as she galloped clear of them down the home straight, and indeed, she looked as though she would have won even more comfortably had the race been over today’s trip.

Planet Sport Bet Daily Special: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if the favourite wins (inc. joint), get a £5 Free Bet

That would make sense because she boasts an unbeaten 4/4 record when racing over further than 10 furlongs, beating 36 rivals under these circumstances and those four wins (over trips between 11 and 12.5 furlongs) were all achieved on left-handed Tapeta tracks, including over this course and distance.

Her only subsequent run saw her beaten for finishing speed when dropped back to 9.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton last Saturday, and two of the Class 2 company that beat her are now rated 99 and 97, which is well above anything she faces here..

Not only does she drop back down to Class 3 level today, but she is upped to what is surely now her optimum distance, while of similar significance is that seven of her eight wins have been achieved on Tapeta.

Furthermore, Queen Of Ipanema has curiously won eight  of her 17 career races with no placed finishes, suggesting that when she gets into a battle, she certainly knows how to push her nose in front.

Suggested best bet: Queen Of Ipanema in the 16:30 at Newcastle

• Tips and analysis provided by Steve Jones who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr

Of the others, Rhythmic Intent is one of those rivals who should have won more races than he has (4/38) but his mark now stands 10lbs lower than at the start of last season.

He advertised the fact that his turn is nearing when, on his penultimate start in December, he finished a close second of 12 in a Class 3 handicap over today’s course and distance.

All his wins have come on galloping tracks, and he has won over as far as 14.5f, so 12.5f on this uphill track should suit him nicely, as he showed on that solitary previous visit, and the quicker they go, the better his chance will be.

Next Best bet: Rhythmic Intent in the 16:30 at Newcastle

 

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