Newbury trends analysis racing tip: Stats pick out Complete Unknown for Coral Gold Cup

14.50 Newbury Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3 miles 2 furlongs)

For Saturday’s racing tip we have taken the easy(!) option of this 20-runner handicap chase over 3 miles and 2 furlongs.

Thanks to our trends analysis we have managed to reduce the field to a more manageable shortlist of three:

• 19/21 – Aged 8 or younger 
• 19/21 – Had won between 2-5 races over fences 
• 19/21 – Had won a chase race over at least 3 miles 
• 17/21 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 15/21 – Finished in the first three last time out 
• 14/21 – Carried over 10st 12lb 
• 14/21 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there) 
• 14/21 – Had a previous run that season 
• 14/21 – Rated between 140 and 151 
• 13/21 – Aged either 6 or 7 years old 
• 13/21 – Winning distance – 2½ lengths or more 
• 13/21 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race 
• 12/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse 
• 12/21 – Unplaced favourites 
• 11/21 – Won last time out 
• 10/21 – Ran at either Aintree (3) or Cheltenham (7) last time out 
•   7/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint) 
•   3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls 
•   3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 11) 
•   2/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable 
•   2/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 7)
• 12/18 - Carried over 11 stone 
• The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1 

Complete Unknown has been targeted toward this race for a while and if the ground is soft or as close to soft as possible, then Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old has to be a serious contender here. 

Both stable and jockey Harry Cobden are in red-hot form, the horse has only once been out of the top three in thirteen starts under rules, including his season debut victory at Newton Abbot in October, which was a good sign after undergoing wind surgery during his six-month break.

WATCH: Harry Cobden weighs up Complete Unknown’s Coral Gold Cup prospects

Mahler Mission looked to be winning the National Hunt Chase at the Festival before falling at the second last when four lengths clear. 

If John McConnell’s stable was in any sort of form Mahler Mission would be a shorter price than he is, but 0-34 in the last fortnight does not boost confidence. 

The seven-year-old has had a run over a shorter trip at Carlisle a month ago which should put him spot on for this and if you ignore his only fall, he should go close.

Twig has won over this course and distance, albeit at a much lower level, and I do think he could outrun his current outsider price. 

His best form is on a sound surface, but he jumps and stays well and if he is still improving, he could run into one of the places. He has won four out of six chases including in a field of sixteen, so several potential positives to consider.

We could easily have selected any one of the three shortlisted and there are multiple other dangers in the field, including Stumptown and Monbeg Genius, but we are happy to settle on a win bet on Complete Unknown.

It is a big field so we could go each-way on his current odds of 7/1, despite limited place returns, but if you decide to follow this route then don’t forget to shop around for extra places where available.

Suggested bet: Complete Unknown in the 15:00 race at Newbury

 

READ MORE: Harry Cobden’s previews his five Newbury rides on his Planet Sport Bet blog