Newbury racing tip: Trends analysis reinforces prospects of warm favourite Hyland
Soaring Glory (centre) disappointed at Newbury recently
After some low-key midweek racing, the action picks up at Newbury on Friday, allowing racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach to aim his popular trends analysis at the final competitive race on the card.
Our selection last Saturday in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Haydock finished fifth, so hopefully you shopped around for extra places as advised.
At time of writing Bold Endeavour was 25/1 and was available at that price the night before racing before being backed into 11/1.
Slate Man won the race and both he and third-plcaed Crambo were also on our shortlist as potential winners.
We now look ahead to this weekend and the first of our trends races at Newbury, which will run on Friday and is to be televised on ITV4.
15:35 Newbury: Play Coral 'Racing-Super-Series' For Free Handicap Hurdle (3 miles 52 yards)
As usual, I have used the trends below to narrow the field:
- 15/16 – Placed 5th or better last time out
- 15/16 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
- 14/16 – Carried more than10st-9lb
- 13/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 12/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 11/16 – Placed favourites
- 11/16 – Aged 5 or 6 years old
- 11/16 – Irish-bred winners
- 10/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (5), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time
- 9/16 – Won just 1-2 times over hurdles
- 8/16 – Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles
- 6/16 – Winning favourites
- 4/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
- 2/16 – Trained by David Pipe
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2
The field of twelve has been reduced to three using the trends above and hopefully with further analysis I can identify the winner:
Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Regal Blue finishes in the first 4 places, get a £5 Free Bet
Hyland won a big-field handicap at Cheltenham last time out in smooth style and has gone up six pounds and has a lot of weight to carry here.
He is a proven stayer and the stable and jockey are in top form. Hyland has already qualified for the Pertemps at Cheltenham, so he can go all out for this and should be among the first few home.
Suggested bet: Hyland to win the 15:35 at Newbury
Gentleman At Arms has gone up five pounds in the weights after winning a decent Class 2 hurdle at Aintree last time and that was an improved performance.
He is an out-and-out stayer and finished second in the Grade 2 Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree in 2022, which is strong form.
Gentleman At Arms is more exposed than most of these, so it will be interesting to see how he goes with the extra weight.
Ramo comes from the in-form Venetia Williams stable (29% win strike rate in last fortnight) and won nicely last time out at Ludlow, albeit in a lower-grade Class 4 race.
A five-pound jump in the weights coupled with two high-class rivals is probably not the best combination for his chances here.
A couple of other contenders catch my eye from a form perspective – Ed Keeper and Hoe Joly Smoke both come from in-form stables and are less exposed than others in the race.
Also, from the David Pipe stable at much bigger odds, Iceo Madrik comes into this after a wind operation and bearing in mind the stable’s record in the race it will be interesting to see if any money comes in for the horse. Of course, this could just be a spin before a run in the Welsh National!
However, based on the trends analysis I am suggesting a win bet on the favourite Hyland, as I think there is more to come from this Nicky Henderson inmate.
READ MORE: Harry Cobden’s Planet SportBet Blog: Complete Unknown has perfect profile for Coral Gold Cup
