Leopardstown each-way racing tip (15:00): Testing conditions set to suit Fakir D’alene
Leopardstown watering ahead of big Christmas fixture
From this massive 29-strong line-up, Tipstrr pundit Steve Jones has picked out some each-way value from an outsider who might well revel in what is likely to be a testing three-mile trip.
15:00 Leopardstown: Paddy Power Chase (3 miles 100 yards)
Gordon Elliott has won this prize twice in recent seasons and Fakir D’alene could provide the yard with another success because he revels in testing ground and has plenty of good form in high-class big-field staying handicaps on left-handed tracks.
At last year’s Cheltenham Festival, this eight-year-old ran in fourth of 20 in the Kim Muir over 26 furlongs of soft ground, finishing just four lengths off the winner and missing third place by only half a length.
He fared best of four Elliott runners in that event, and he ran off a mark of 144, and is effectively four pounds lower this time because the very useful Danny Gilligan claims five pounds whereas his rider at Cheltenham claimed three.
Gilligan has been used very shrewdly over fences this year by Gordon Elliott, teaming up in 26 chases and winning 8 of them (31%) while placing in a further 10.
He has returned a figure of +40 points to level stakes at SP from those 26 races, so he has been very profitable to follow under these conditions.
Following his big run at Cheltenham, Fakir D’alene was brought down in the Irish Grand National, after which he was off the track for 545 days, returning to action in mid-October with a comeback outing that must have thrilled connections.
His reappearance saw him finish runner-up of 15 in a point-to-point, while his first run back under rules was an excellent third of 20 in last month’s Troytown Handicap, a very valuable staying event run over 3 miles of soft-heavy ground at Navan.
Effectively racing off the same mark again today (thanks to Gilligan’s claim), Fakir D’alene looks to have been underestimated in the early market, particularly with the significant amount of rain forecast on the day of the race.
The eight-year-old is still very lightly-raced for his age and those two big runs at Cheltenham and Navan have been his only two completed starts in staying handicap chases and, in addition to those, he managed to win one of his two earlier handicap chases.
Suggested bet: Fakir D’alene in the 15:00 at Leopardstown
- Tip advised by Steve Jones who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr
Of the others, it is hard to ignore the progressive Desertmore House, who comes here on a hat-trick following successive wins at Kilbeggan and in the Grade 3 Kerry National at Listowel.
He won that valuable prize by nearly four lengths, going away at the line in the manner of a highly progressive chaser with a lot more to offer.
He will have a very similar combination of conditions today, and he has now won three of his four runs in this sphere, the last two under today’s rider. And although up another 10 pounds, he looks dangerous once more.
Next best bet: Desertmore House in the 15:00 at Leopardstown
READ MORE: Harry Cobden weighs up his six Chepstow rides in his Planet Sport Bet blog
