Chepstow each-way racing tip: Wayfinder can lead rivals home in Welsh Grand National
A view of Chepstow racecourse
With Boxing Day’s bumper race card behind us, trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach turns his attention towards the 20 runners lining up to contest the 2023 Welsh Grand National at Chepstow.
14.50 Chepstow: Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (3 miles 6½ furlongs)
Our Boxing Day selection, Favour and Glory, ran well to finish second at 10/1 and return some profit on our each-way bet, so we’re looking for more of the same from one of my favourite races to finish off our Christmas series of trends articles.
By reducing the field using the trends below we can hopefully find a winner to pay for some of the Christmas expenses:
- 21/21 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
- 21/21 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
- 21/21 – Had won over at least 3 miles (fences)
- 19/21 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 18/21 – Aged 9 or younger
- 17/21 – Carried 11st or less in weight
- 15/21 – Aged 8 or younger
- 15/21 – Carried 10st-8lb or less in weight
- 14/21 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/21 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
- 12/21 – Irish bred
- 11/21 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
- 9/21 – Won last time out
- 8/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 7/21 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
- 7/21 – Had run in the Welsh National before
- 6/21 – French bred
- 4/21 – Winning favourites
- 2/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
- 2/21 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
- 2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- Trainers Venetia Williams and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the Welsh Grand National twice each.
Wayfinder aims to win the race for Wales and has more experience than the rest of the horses on the shortlist having run sixteen times over fences. Wayfinder has won three times over fences at Chepstow and handles soft or heavy going.
Suggested bet: Wayfinder each-way in the Welsh Grand National (1450 Chepstow)
Autonomous Cloud has never been out of the first three in all ten of his runs to date and with the stable in red hot form he must have a chance to shine here. He jumps well and only really lacks course form apart from one hurdle run.
Super Survivor another one, which has not been out of the first three in his career to date, but he was well beaten by Autonomous Cloud at Uttoxeter. Super Survivor jumps well and has won over these fences, and this has been a long-term target for the horse. Soft ground is key, and he should go well if the rain comes as forecast.
Charlie Uberalles has won two of his three chase starts and might lack experience to win this. The ground is likely to be too soft for him and Charlie Uberalles also lacks course form. His trainer Dianne Sayer does not have many runners but has a 16% winning strike rate with her chasers in the last five years. Charlie Uberalles probably needs good ground to show his best and the weather is likely to move the ground to soft.
Not Sure is another Welsh-trained horse trained by Kerry Lee, who has produced horses to run well and win big chases, especially on soft going. Not Sure will have to run from outside the handicap and that makes things difficult, but he does get his conditions here, although he has no experience of running at Chepstow.
I do think both Autonomous Cloud and Super Survivor could win this race and are likely to be there or thereabouts, along with Truckers Tavern and Nassalam.
Based solely on the trends, I am going to suggest an each-way bet on Wayfinder due to value and his liking for the course and the conditions. He is sitting around 25/1 in places, so be sure to look around for the best price and extra places as usual.
