Cheltenham top racing tip: Trends analysis recommends Latenightpass for cross country trip

It truly was a great result for this column last Saturday when our selection Chambard cruised home in the Betfair Chase at the juicy price of 18/1, and a great result also for any of you who backed it. 

It was fantastic ride by Lucy Turner, who showed great confidence in her horse and kept a very cool head throughout the race.

15.00 Cheltenham Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase (3 miles 5½ furlongs)

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Vital Island finishes in the first 4 places, get a £5 Free Bet

This weekend we have the two-day Cheltenham meeting and on Friday we looking at the Cross Country Chase that involves a wide variety of obstacles over a testing trip of more than three and a half miles. 

The following trends will help to reduce the field to three or four runners:

• 17/18 – Raced within the last four weeks 
• 16/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (4 won) 
• 15/18 – Had run over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before 
• 14/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 14/18– Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out 
• 11/18 – Irish-trained horse 
• 10/18 – Aged 9 or older 
• 10/18 – Placed favourites 
•   8/18 – Aged in double-figures 
•   8/18 – Had won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before 
•   8/18 – French-bred 
•   7/18 – Trained by Enda Bolger 
•   6/18 – Won last time out 
•   5/18 – Carried 11st-12lb

Latenightpass was second behind Foxy Jacks over this course and distance back in November and that was his first attempt. That would suggest there is scope for improvement for a horse that is still inexperienced over fences. He has run well over the Grand National fences at Aintree, so his jumping should not be an issue here.

Suggested bet: Latenightpass in the 15:00 at Cheltenham

Francky Du Berlais was fourth behind Latenightpass last time and has previously run well over this course. He is one of seven runners here to be running out of the handicap (carrying more weight than their official rating). Francky Du Berlais is only two pounds off his official mark and will probably run well again, although he is quite exposed, having had over thirty chase outings.

Diesel D’Allier won this race two years ago, but has kind of lost his way subsequently and finished 22 lengths behind in the November race won by Foxy Jacks. It would take a hugely improved performance for Diesel D’Allier to challenge here, but at least he has winning course-and-distance form.

Didero Vallis showed improved form to finish third in the November race after having been pulled up in his two previous races. He has struggled to win races and has only passed the post first on four occasions in 42 starts. His improved form in November would make him a player again here, but consistency has never been a strong feature of his career to date. Some horses really take to these fences and are revitalised and perhaps Didero Vallis is one of those.

I never usually bet in these cross country races, but must admit I do enjoy watching the horses tackling the various types of obstacles. 

The two top weights, Minella Indo and Galvin, are my ideas of the potential winners of this race with the former being a Gold Cup winner and the latter a previous Grade 1 winner. 

However, I’m basing our selection in this column purely on the trends analysis above and on that basis, I am suggesting a win bet on Latenightpass.

READ MORE: Harry Cobden previews his Cheltenham rides in his Planet Sport Bet Blog