Aintree trends analysis best bet: Kilbeg King can reign supreme in William Hill Handicap Chase

After our 14/1 selection Sand Bruit won with a 5/1 SP on Thursday, it was almost a tasty double on Friday, when James Du Berlais appeared to have the Topham Chase in the bag coming off the Elbow, only for Arizona Cardinal to rally again and pinch it in the final strides.

Not to worry, we’ll hope to finish with a flourish with our final Aintree pick from one of the appetisers ahead of the big race itself, which we have already covered in our Grand National trends anaysis.

READ MORE: Galvin and Ain’t That A Shame lead the trends for Grand National glory

The final day of the Aintree meeting and the Grand National is being run later in the day, but we are going to focus on a competitive Class 1 chase. 

14.30 Aintree: William Hill (Freebooter) Handicap Chase (3 miles 1 furlong - Mildmay course)

Using the winning trends below we can narrow the runners down to a more manageable shortlist:

• 17/20 – Had run within the last 35 days 
• 16/20 – Did not win last time out 
• 15/20 – Aged aged 8 or older 
• 14/20 – Carried 11st-1lb or less in weight 
• 12/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out 
• 12/20 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market 
• 12/20 – Unplaced in their last race 
•   4/20 – Won their last race 
•   4/20 – Winning favourites 
•   3/20 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3/13) 
•   2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable 
•   1/20 – Irish-trained winners 
•   4/24  - Aged 10 or older 
•   5/19 - Carried more than 11st 
•   9/13 - Rated between 131 and 140 
• 10/16 - No previous wins that season 
•   8/11 - Had won over 3+ miles before 
•   2/17 - Won last time out
• Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 46 runnings

Those positive and negative trends leaves us with a shortlist of three runners for further analysis:

Kilbeg King ran well to finish fourth over the marathon trip of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and this drop back in distance should suit. 

Anthony Honeyball’s nine-year-old enjoyed his best run of form this time last year to produce numbers of 121, so he could relish the spring-time outing.

Kilbeg King finished second in a Graded novice chase at Ascot in February and this handicap should be a lot easier than that race, so we can expect him to handle the going and go close in this race under Sam Twiston-Davies.

Suggested best bet: Kilbeg King each-way in the 14:30 at Aintree

Fugitif is at the very top of the weights, which has proved to be a disadvantage in this race in the past. His best form has all been over much shorter trips and his three runs at Aintree have seen him well beaten on each occasion.

Twig was second in the Ultima at the Cheltenham festival last time out, and was featured as a trends selection here for that race. 

The Ben Pauling-trained nine-year-old has been ultra-consistent all season apart from one forgivable poor run at Newbury just before Christmas. 

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Cruz Control finishes in the first 3 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

Twig is twelve pounds higher than when he last won six outings ago at Uttoxeter last summer, so it will take a career-best performance to win this off his current mark.

There are plenty of others who will fancy their chances of landing this competitive handicap, but Kilbeg King is our each-way selection based on the trends, and fingers crossed it can at least make the frame to complete our Aintree-hat-trick.

Our familiar footnote is a reminder to please look around for best odds and additional places if any are on offer from the bookmakers.

 

READ MORE: Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Best bets for Grand National Day at Aintree on April 13