2024 Grand National tips: Galvin and Ain’t That A Shame tick all the right boxes in Aintree showpiece
Grand National at Aintree
With the Randox Grand National finally upon us and the final list of 34 starters locked in, Andrew of Fiosrach is looking for his trends analysis to carry its Aintree form into the showpiece event.
Saturday April 13, 16.00 Aintree: Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (4 miles 2½ furlongs)
The Grand National remains the biggest betting race of the year and one which has changed a lot over the last few years, with the changes to the fences and this year the field size reduced to a maximum of 34 runners.
The standard of horse winning the race over the last dozen years or so has changed markedly upwards, with Gold Cup class horses coming out on top more often than not.
Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the Grand National and if Corach Rambler wins the race, get a £5 Free Bet!
That said, the trends for the race still apply and you are looking for a horse between 8-11 years old, sound jumper, with proven stamina. I am using the trends below to narrow the field and hopefully find us the winner:
- 20 / 20 (71%) - Placed within the past 22-350 days
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Not in a Grade 2, Class 2,3,4 or 6 last time out
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Had 1 - 5 placings in the preceding year
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Not black or chestnut in colour
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Made 3 - 10 starts that season
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved an RPR of 136+ that season
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 3 - 10 starts in the preceding year
- 20 / 20 (86%) - In a field of 5 - 26 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Ran over 1m 5½f - 3m½f on debut
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Carried 141 - 170lbs on debut
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved a career RPR of 146+
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Made 2 - 6 starts previous 6 months
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Off a break of 19 - 83 days
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 148 - 166lbs last time out
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Beaten no more than 23l on debut
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 14/1 for last win
- 19 / 20 (69%) - Best in 3 of at least 3rd
- 19 / 20 (74%) - Finished first 5 on debut
- 19 / 20 (83%) - Under 7lb less than average Official Rating
- 19 / 20 (85%) - Fewer than 6 DNFs (did not finish)
- 19 / 20 (88%) - Achieved a Top Speed Rating of 74+ that season
- 19 / 20 (89%) - No more than 4 years above minimum age
- 18 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 25/1 on debut
- 18 / 20 (86%) - Won within last 9 starts
- 18 / 20 (86%) - Achieved a Top Speed rating of 113+ in handicaps
Using the trends above reduced the field to the following three runners:
Galvin unseated in this race at the first last year, but that was probably more to do with the long delay to the start of the race caused by protests than by his jumping ability.
The Gordon Elliott-trained 10-year-old is a class act and appears to get in here off a reasonable weight. He should still be galloping when many are running on empty and if able to enjoy a clear round and still be in touch approaching the last, he will have a real shout of coming through to win the race.
Suggested ante-post bet (1): Galvin each-way in the Randox Grand National
As an 11-year-old, Latenightpass is at the upper end of the age range of previous winners, but he has only had eight chase runs, winning four of them, with the additional plus of having already won over the National fences.
Dan Skelton’s charge has already won over an extended trip with a successful run over the cross-country course at Cheltenham’s December meeting, and his jumping and stamina means he has to pose a threat here.
Ain’t That A Shame finished down the field in the National last season, but at least now knows what the experience is like, as he jumps well and has won at Grade 3 level so has a decent amount of ability.
The fact that Rachael Blackmore has opted for another of Henry De Bromheads charges, 2021 Gold Cup winner Minello Indo, might be seen as a negative, but the jockey can only have so much influence, and on his day Ain't That A Shame could have the legs for this, regardless of who he is lugging round.
Suggested ante-post bet (2): Ain’t That A Shame each-way in the Randox Grand National
Obviously, even with the reduced field, the Grand National remains a betting minefield and a pinsticker’s paradise, but based on our trends analysis, I am suggesting each-way bets on Galvin and Ain’t That A Shame.
Whoever you decide to back at this stage, be sure to use a bookmaker offering non-runner concessions and generous each-way terms.
