Madrid Open tips and suggested bets: Alexander Zverev to come alive in Spanish capital

Nobody has yet managed to string together three consecutive title wins in Madrid, with the immortal Rafael Nadal coming closest after his back-to-back wins in 2013 and 2014, followed by a runner-up finish the following year.

Nadal has drifted to 8/1 for the French Open after his ignominious start to 2024. He is in Madrid this week too and is a 16/1 shot for glory.

Rafa waved goodbye to the Barcelona Open for possibly the final time after he lost 7-5 6-1 to world number 11 Alex de Minaur in round two last week, and the signs for a successful farewell season are not good. He has won just a single match on clay so far this season, not ideal prep for Roland Garros in anyone’s language.  

Alcaraz is on record as saying playing at the Caja Magica feels like he is playing at home, so if he is fit he deserves market respect here.

Planet Sport Bet have him as a 9/4 favourite but he has not had much court time due to being bothered by an arm injury in recent weeks, so it is a bit of a punt into the unknown backing him at said odds.

It won’t be easy landing a hat-trick, with ATP behemoths Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner and Nadal all involved.

What we do know is that Madrid plays a lot faster than a lot of clay courts in Europe, meaning players with a missile serve and/or heavy groundies should not be ruled out.

Alexander Zverev is a two-time champion here, and he is a 17/2 shout with Planet Sport Bet.

He clearly loves it in Madrid, and tends to come alive in these sort of conditions. He opens up against Borna Coric, and the pair have a 3-3 head-to-head record. They have never met on clay before, but you would fancy Zverev to get through that and his draw is not the worst.

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud have been pretty dominant on red dirt so far this season, but both will surely be running on fumes after their exploits in Monte Carlo and Barcelona (both made the final match back-to-back).

One star who looks too big in the betting is Andrey Rublev at 28/1. Granted he has looked a bit of a shambles in recent weeks, losing early in four straight events.

Indeed the world No. 8 slammed his racquet six times into the dirt after being upset by Brandon Nakashima in Barcelona for his fourth straight ATP loss last week.

However the Russian has five career titles to his name on clay, including a shock win at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters last season.

He is massively volatile and often struggles to keep his emotions in check. However, he is a real dog on the court and at his best, he is relentless on the red stuff so I will be having a peanut play on him each-way at fancy odds.

Suggested bets:

Alexander Zverev to win the Mutua Madrid Open at 17/2

Andrey Rublev (each-way) to win the Mutua Madrid Open at 28/1

*All odds correct at time of article publication