Italian Open tips: Aryna Sabalenka has the power to bank another Masters 1000 title

In the women’s event, only a very brave gambling scribe would be willing to take on World No 1 Iga Swiatek in this kind of form. However - this week - I am that scribe.

There is no denying that Swiatek is a special talent on the red stuff. The Pole has reached the final in 55.6% of WTA main draws she has entered on clay, which is a mind-blowing stat. It is also easily the highest percentage of any player with 5+ WTA main draws appearances on red dirt surface this century.

She is playing with a huge amount of confidence, and unsurprisingly is a piping hot 10/11 favourite to win the French Open once again at Roland Garros in a few weeks.

Swiatek has made light work of the competition so far in Italy, bouncing into the semis without losing a set. She faces Coco Gauff next, and is a 1/5 poke to beat the American with Planet Sport Bet.

That price looks a bit short as Gauff is the truth, and this week she passed Caroline Wozniacki as the player with the most wins at WTA 1000 level before reaching the age of 21 (61).

The layers cannot see past 22-year-old Pole Swiatek however - who took the title in Rome in 2021 and 2022 – and she is 8/15 to go on and win it from here.

Undeniably, Swiatek is the ultimate test on clay in the women’s game right now, but is not unbeatable as Elena Rybakina proved on dirt in Stuttgart a few weeks back.

World No 2 Aryna Sabalenka is one player that does not fear Swiatek, and the Belarussian looks a bit of value at 7/2 to win the Italian Open at this stage.

She has not had things easy. On Monday night, she had to save three match points and defeat Elina Svitolina in the Italian capital. She showed heart and courage under fire in that one, and her reward is a quarter-final tussle with Jelena Ostapenko.

It should be an intriguing clash between two women who love to play ‘lights out’ tennis. There will be no shortage of winners, and plenty of double faults too, but Sabalenka can make it 3-0 in her career head-to-head against the mercurial Latvian.

Many players seem defeated before the match even starts against Swiatek, especially on clay. This is not the case when it comes to Australian Open champion Sabalenka however, who has a huge power game and now also the belief to go with it.

Two weeks ago, Sabalenka squandered three match points in the Madrid final as Swiatek snatched the title from her grasp. That must have hurt Aryna, but she at least knows her game matches up to the World No 1.

Sabalenka’s forehand is more powerful than a John Fury head-butt, and if she can stay focused she has a real chance to bank another Masters 1000 title.

Suggested bets:

Aryna Sabalenka to win the women’s Internazionali BNL d’Italia at 7/2 (Planet Sport Bet)