French Open women's final tips and suggested bets: Value to be found in opening set
- James Richardson
- 7 June 2024
The French Open women's singles final between Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini appears to be quite the mismatch. Will there be an upset on the cards and can we find you some value punts?
Swiatek has won three of the last four French Opens and is 20-1 during this season's clay swing.
Paolini has never beaten Swiatek and has only won six of the 30 games they have contested across two clashes.
Swiatek is aiming to win her fifth Grand Slam and 23rd singles title on the WTA Tour, meanwhile Paolini has won just two titles in her career to date and this will be her first Grand Slam final appearance.
Paolini has defeated two Grand Slam champions on her way to the final having bested Bianca Andreescu in the third round before she stunned Elena Rybakina in the quarter-finals.
Swiatek has dropped just one set on her way to the final, with that blip coming in her second-round clash with former world No 1 Naomi Osaka.
Paolini won her maiden WTA 1000 title earlier this season in Dubai and is one of the most improved players on the tour this season but it might be asking too much of her to get the better of the world No 1 on her favourite surface.
French Open 2024 Women's Final: Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini | Pick: Swiatek
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French Open 2024 Women's Final: Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini suggested bets
Jasmine Paolini is a long shot for the win but if you are in the mood to go high-risk you might just be rewarded for taking the bold approach.
Even if you think Swiatek is nailed on to win there isn't much value in backing her for any kind of unqualified win at this stage.
Swiatek's status as a heavy favourite has also influenced sportsbooks when it comes to the number of sets they feel this final will go to.
Paolini winning a set off the Pole could be extremely valuable for the bold punter but the risks here should be obvious.
The first set score is probably one of the most enticing markets in this final given the expectation that Swiatek will run away with the match.
A 6-1 scoreline in that opening set in favour of the world No 1 is something that really could be on the cards.
If Paolini stands any hope of winning a set the first one appears to be her best chance to get into the game.
Again the mismatch of this final means that higher-likelihood events haven't been assigned terribly generous odds so the punter will either need to find value in a set of bets or take some big risks.
