Juventus vs Sevilla verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets
- George Dempsey
- 10 May 2023
Two former champions will meet in the Europa League semi-finals as Juventus host Sevilla at the Allianz Stadium.
Both Juventus and Sevilla have had their flaws exposed in this competition this season, but will be looking to gain advantage in the first leg of this semi-final.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Europa League, Thursday May 11, Kick-off 8pm, live on BT Sport 2
Predicted score
Suggested bets
Juventus to win
Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score: No
Key stats
Juventus have won four of their six Europa League knockout ties with a clean sheet, including two 1-0 wins over Freiburg and Sporting Lisbon.
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 18 of their last 34 matches in all competitions.
Sevilla haven't won any of their previous 12 away contests in Europe, failing to score in seven of those matches.
Sevilla have created just one Opta-defined big chance in their three away Europa League games.
Juventus vs Sevilla team news
Kaio Jorge (fitness) and Mattia De Sciglio (cruciate ligament) are the only confirmed absentees for Juventus on Thursday.
Juventus are expected to continue in a 3-5-1-1 formation with Danilo, Gleison Bremer and Alex Sandro lining up in front of Wojciech Szczesny.
Joan Jordan (unknown) and Marcao (muscle) remain long-term absentees for the visitors, with the latter's absence being a blow. Tecatito and Pape Gueye are not eligible to feature in the Europa League.
Sevilla will be hoping that Suso will be able to recover from an unspecified hamstring complaint picked up in the 3-2 win over Espanyol at the weekend.
Verdict
Juventus last won this competition 30 years ago, lifting the UEFA Cup after a two-legged affair in which they dismantled Borussia Dortmund 6-1. Roberto Baggio and Dino Baggio scored five of their six goals.
Sevilla have a special affinity with the UEFA Cup/Europa League trophy. The Andalusians have lifted it on six occasions including three successive titles in 2014, 2015 and 2016. They last won the competition in 2020.
Juventus reached this stage of the competition with two-legged victories over Nantes, Freiburg and Sporting Lisbon after their Champions League elimination.
Sevilla followed the same route but have faced much tougher opponents to this point. Jose Luis Mendilibar's men have eliminated PSV, Fenerbahce and Manchester United despite struggling in the away leg.
A ninth-minute goal from Adrien Rabiot would prove decisive in Lisbon, handing Juve a 2-1 victory on aggregate, but there's an argument they are fortunate to be here. Over the two legs, Sporting outperformed them on xG, 3.65-2.34.
The Italians had no such issues in their previous games, dominating possession, chances and deservedly progressing. However, their struggles to contain Sporting and break them down are worth noting.
Sevilla also rode their luck in the first half at Old Trafford, but scored five unanswered goals to progress 5-2 on aggregate. They didn't give United a second to breathe in the 3-0 home win.
While that has been the case in all of their home Europa League fixtures, they have not fared as well on their travels. Fenerbahce wiped the floor with them and should have scored more than one.
The only notable performance Sevilla have put in on their travels in Europe was the bizarre 2-2 draw with Manchester United, but even then we have to acknowledge that was down to the home team's failings. Arguably, Sevilla didn't do enough to score.
Juventus have won two of three home Europa League ties 1-0. They have also won four of six overall without conceding. Much of Sevilla's game plan will involve still being in with a chance come the second leg, so we don't expect them to take many risks. Juventus are worth backing to win.
