Europa Conference League tips: AZ Alkmaar could bring Dutch delight
- Paul Bathurst
- 20 March 2023
As domestic football takes a breather during the international break, football tipster Paul Bathurst examines the prospects of the eight teams left in the Europa Conference League competition.
Premier League side West Ham United are current favourites to lift the trophy after winning all ten of their ties so far, scoring 25 goals and conceding just five along the way.
Any sort of success would be welcomed by the Hammers' faithful, but with an ongoing relegation battle, manager David Moyes cannot afford to prioritise Europe's third-tier competition. His best performers are unlikely to be fresh and that could well lead to problems as they face stronger sides going forward.
A kind draw against Belgium based side Gent should not be an issue in the quarter-finals, although the semi-finals and beyond will be very difficult for a side currently in the Premier League relegation zone.
Lech Poznan vs Fiorentina
Fiorentina undoubtedly have the most favourable quarter-final match-up on paper against Polish side Lech Poznan.
At 25/1 the Polish champions are very much the outsider to win the competition, although they are capable of springing a surprise.
However, La Viola have also endured a miserable season domestically, but unlike West Ham they will feel safe from relegation with them holding a significant points barrier from the bottom three in Serie A.
Lech defeated Norwegian champions Bodo Glimt last round, whilst a 3-0 win at home to Spanish side Villarreal showcased their potential in the group stages.
Fiorentina have shown they can beat strong teams, having dispatched Sivasspor and Braga in previous rounds, although it must be noted that both ties involved red cards to their opponents, with the Turkish outfit seeing finishing both legs with 10 men.
If the Italian side are to go all the way, they will have to show they can perform consistently over two legs, not just in phases throughout the tie.
Basel vs Nice
French side Nice are another side favoured by bookmakers, they are priced similarly to Fiorentina and certainly possess a squad capable of going all the way.
The likes of Kasper Schmeichel, Ross Barkley and Aaron Ramsey all joined in the summer, while Terem Moffi has scored four goals in eight starts since arriving from Lorient in the winter transfer window.
Les Aiglons have not lost a competitive game since early January - a run which has seen them go unbeaten now for 13 games (won eight, drawn five).
Swiss side FC Basel are Nice's quarter-final opponents, and despite being 20 times Swiss Champions, Basel are struggling badly this campaign. They dispatched Trabzonspor and Slovan Bratislava in previous rounds to reach this stage, but they sit sixth in just a 10-team league after being heavily beaten by Young Boys 3-0 on Sunday. Nice should have no problems making it to the semi finals.
Anderlecht vs AZ Alkmaar
Along with Gent, another Belgian side have made it to the last eight with the famous RSC Anderlecht getting the better of Villarreal in the previous round.
That excellent result belied Anderlecht's current eighth place in the Belgian League, where they have perhaps taken their eye off the ball domestically.
Standing in the way of Anderlecht's European hopes are the Dutch side AZ Alkmaar, who currently sit fourth in the Eredivisie, level with PSV and just two points behind second-placed Ajax, so they still have hopes of qualifying for Europe next season via their league position.
Affectionately known as 'The Cheeseheads', AZ comfortably beat Lazio in the last round 4-2 on aggregate, after they topped their group with 15 points from a possible 18, and head coach Pascal Jansen will be optimistic his side can go all the way. This team boasts goalscorer in numerous positions, with four players already surpassing double figures this campaign.
Favourites should prevail
All four favourites should theoretically reach the semi finals, although Lech Poznan, despite being the lowest-ranked team left, may be the most likely to cause an upset - especially if they can win the opening leg in Poland.
AZ Alkmaar are strongly placed to go one better than domestic rivals Feyenoord, who last season made the final before losing out to Italian giants AS Roma 1-0 - interestingly, Feyenoord have drawn Roma in the quarter finals of this season's Europa league.
Suggested bets:
Lech Poznan to win first leg vs Fiorentina (10/3 - 3/1)
AZ Alkmaar to win Europa Conference League (9/2)
