Championship: Burnley vs Sunderland verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets
- Matty Briggs
- 29 March 2023
Burnley return to Championship action against Sunderland looking to get their promotion bandwagon back on the road after getting a reality check at Manchester City last time out.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Championship, Friday, March 31, Kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Predicted score
Burnley 3-1 Sunderland
Suggested bets
Burnley to beat Sunderland
Burnley vs Sunderland BTTS, yes
Key stats
Burnley are undefeated in their last 17 Championship matches
Burnley are unbeaten at home and have won 14 of 19 games
Sunderland have won eight of 19 away from home
Sunderland have won just one of the last six meetings between the sides
Previous meetings
CH: Sunderland 2-4 Burnley, October 2022
LC: Burnley 1-3 Sunderland, August 2019
PL: Sunderland 1-1 Burnley, March 2017
FC: Burnley 2-0 Sunderland, January 2017
FC: Sunderland 0-0 Burnley, January 2017
Team news
Jay Rodriguez is missing, but Taylor Harwood-Bellis is in contention for the hosts.
Jewison Bennette (dislocated shoulder) is unlikely to play again this season. Dan Ballard is out and so is Niall Huggins, but Lynden Gooch is available. Tom Watson and Chris Rigg could come into contention, but Burnley away may not be the right game.
Recent form
Burnley lost 6-0 at Man City in the FA Cup before the int'l break
Burnley have won 15 of their last 16 at home
Sunderland lost 2-1 to Luton last time out
Sunderland have scored in their last six games
What has been said?
Vincent Kompany said: "What I would like to see now is a full squad to give me difficult decisions to make, and that usually gives you an extra boost because there's so much competition."
Tony Mowbray said: "We want to be an in-possession team if possible, we want to get the fans out of their seats, try and create goalscoring opportunities, try to be creative and effective. Can we create a team that epitomises that? We're trying."
Verdict
The last four times these two sides have met it has been in four separate competitions. Burnley have edged the recent meetings, winning in the league in October and recording an FA Cup replay win in 2017.
Of course Burnley are much changed since then, with Vincent Kompany overhauling their style and bringing with it an amazing 83% win ratio. They have been a powerhouse in the second tier this season and could have promotion wrapped up by Easter.
It's no surprise to see the Clarets odds-on at home, but at 40/85 they actually represent decent value after clocking up a 74% win ratio. And when you look at their recent run of 15 home wins from 16 then you might well have expected Kompany's men to be 1/6 shots.
That said it's still understandable for punters to look for a bigger price to get their teeth into and backing Sunderland to score could be the way.
The Black Cats still retain hope of a play-off place and this might well be seen as a free hit in Lancashire.
Only Burnley and Middlesbrough have netted more away goals than Sunderland's 29 and they have scored in their last 11 away days. They are 8/11 to score at Turf Moor, and while a victory may be out of their capabilities, Tony Mowbray's men should be able to get on the scoresheet.
But you may as well take the 10/11 about both teams to score and when you consider that Burnley have done so in every home game this campaign and average over two goals at home, that looks the call.
