Bundesliga preview and tips: Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund set for epic showdown
- Paul Bathurst
- 31 March 2023
Bundesliga matches do not come bigger than this clash between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, but football pundit Paul Bathurst suggests it might not produce the goalfest of recent encounters.
When Germany's top-flight paused back in November to accommodate the Qatar World Cup, Bayern Munich held a four-point lead at the top of the table. Rivals Dortmund would have not felt as positive, with Edin Terzic's team sitting in sixth spot and a significant nine points behind their Bavarian rivals.
Fast forward to April and it's actually Borussia Dortmund who lead the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich hot on their heels. Just one point separates the two German giants, while Union Berlin are only a further four points adrift and will feel they could still be contenders.
So, what has gone wrong for Bayern? That's a rather difficult question to answer, but one that club executives have wasted no time in attempting to answer with a ruthless managerial change.
Julian Nagelsmann was seen as the next big thing within the German coaching world following amazing spells at Hoffenheim and Red Bull Leipzig, but after a bright start to the season, it went downhill alarmingly for Nagelsmann.
He has been quickly replaced by former Chelsea and PSG coach Thomas Tuchel, who has been handed the most difficult assignment for his first game in charge.
Bayern's biggest problem under Nagelsmann since the break appeared to be defensively. This line-up should never be conceding three goals at home to relegation-threatened Augbsurg, while consecutive away losses at Leverkusen (3-2) and Borussia Monchengladbach (2-1) are equally unacceptable for a club of this stature.
One thing is for sure, Thomas Tuchel will seek to address these defensive issues immediately. The profiles of Nagelsmann and Tuchel are very different, with the latter certainly adopting a more pragmatic approach to his teams.
The attacking talents at Bayern will always produce goals, so if Tuchel can make his new defence less porous, Bayern will feel confident of retaining their title.
For such a turnaround in the league in just a ten-game spell, Bayern's failings are not the only part of the equation. Dortmund are unbeaten domestically since returning from the World Cup break, winning nine of their 10 games, with a very unfortunate 2-2 draw at fierce rivals Schalke the only blot on their copybook - Edin Terzic has indeed done a remarkable job.
Dortmund have not won the Bundesliga since Jurgen Klopp guided them to the 2011-12 crown - in fact, no side other than the imperious Bayern Munich have lifted the trophy since then, but the Munich outfit are now embroiled in a serious fight to lift their 11th title in a row, and Thomas Tuchel will not want to be the manager at the helm when such an incredible streak eventually ends.
Historically, this fixture rarely disappoints in terms of goalmouth action, with the total-goals line commonly set at 3.5, and backing overs at that line would have seen all of their last seven meetings yield a profit.
However, it has been a long time since a game between these two mattered as much as this one, and the feeling of 'must not lose' is likely to be on both managers' minds - although they would never admit this.
Bayern are likely to be without their leading scorer in Jamal Musiala after he missed last week's international break with a thigh injury. Meanwhile, Dortmund director Sebastian Kehl explained this week that top scorer Julian Brandt was back in training, although sadly it appears this game comes too soon for key attackers Karim Adeyemi and Youssoufa Moukouko.
Whether Brandt is fit enough to play a part remains to be seen, but his manager will be desperate to have him back following successive Bundesliga player-of-the-month awards in January and February.
With money being fired into the Over goals markets all week, taking the inverse option appears brave but possibly wise, given the missing personnel alongside the importance of this match for both teams.
Under 3.5 goals gives a lot of wiggle room if the teams set out cautiously, and looks worth a go at around even money.
Card markets are also worth looking at with a ferocious contest anticipated, whilst the dreamers among us may consider a punt on a 0-0 scoreline at a huge price - Dortmund would certainly be delighted with this result, possibly Bayern too.
