Aston Villa vs Man Utd tips and predictions: Don’t be fooled by form book for Super Sunday clash

When Aston Villa visited Old Trafford on Boxing Day, the Villans were priced shorter than 2/1 to leave with all three points.

After taking an early 2-0 lead and looking the dominant side in the first half, Unai Emery’s men inexplicably self-imploded, eventually losing 3-2.

Villa won back-to-back games in the wake of that collapse but have since won just one of five, a 5-0 romp against Sheffield United.

On the other hand, that was the first win in five for an ailing Man Utd side, who have since won four of six and progressed in the FA Cup.

Erik ten Hag’s side are being shown some real respect by the bookmakers here having seemingly turned a corner, but it’s worth remembering we’ve been here before.

The hosts are better than even money to win at Villa Park on Sunday which suggests a U-turn in opinions since they were 19/10 at Old Trafford.

 

EMMA'S SPECIAL SPECIAL: Bet £10 and if Aston Villa win the match, get a £5 free bet!

 

We don’t necessarily accept that to be truly representative of how likely Villa are to win here, because the underlying numbers haven’t changed.

United have shipped seven goals in their last four matches despite facing a struggling League Two side and a Tottenham side missing their midfield and Son Heung-Min.

Their 4-3 away win to Wolves was entertaining, but they threw away a 3-1 lead and were saved by individual brilliance.

In beating Gary O’Neill’s side, United recorded just their third Premier League away win against a side not involved in a relegation battle in 38 attempts.

Villa Park has been a fortress for 11 months. Form comes and goes, but our memories aren’t so short that we have confidence in the visitors getting a result here.

In Newcastle and Chelsea, Villa were up against teams with questions to answer. They find themselves cast in the same role here, and Villa Park will be bouncing.

 

Team news

Aston Villa will be without Emi Buendia, Tyrone Mings, Jhon Duran and Ezria Konsa this weekend.

In a boost to Unai Emery, Luca Digne may be cleared to return to action.

Lisandro Martinez has suffered an injury setback and is ruled out, as are Anthony Martial, Tyrell Malacia, Mason Mount and Aaron Wan-Bissaka.

 

Key stats

- Aston Villa have won seven of their previous eight home matches against the Premier League’s current top nine
- Aston Villa have averaged 2.44 goals per game at Villa Park in the past 12 months
- Since the start of 2022, 73% of United’s away wins have come against teams in a relegation battle
- On the other hand, Man Utd have claimed two points in their last 18 matches against the current top-nine

 

Suggested bets

Aston Villa: Over 1.5 goals

Aston Villa to win

Over 2.5 goals