Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur verdict, predicted score, stats and suggested bets
- George Dempsey
- 12 May 2023
Aston Villa welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Villa Park on Saturday, with Unai Emery’s hosts in red-hot form on home soil.
Just two places and three points separate the sides, with Tottenham in sixth and Villa in eighth going into this weekend's fixtures.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Premier League, Saturday May 13, Kick-off 3pm
Predicted score
Suggested bets
Aston Villa to win
Over 2.5 goals
Ollie Watkins to score
Key stats
For the third time in Premier League history, Aston Villa have won five consecutive home matches. Their best Premier League winning run at home stands at seven matches.
For the first time in Premier League history, Aston Villa have won five consecutive home games without conceding a goal.
Tottenham are winless in six away league matches, conceding 19 goals in the process. It's their worst-ever defensive sequence away from home in the Premier League.
Ollie Watkins has scored seven goals in Aston Villa's last nine Premier League wins.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham team news
Aston Villa may have a clean bill of health for Saturday's match against Tottenham. Third-choice goalkeeper Jed Steer has missed the entire season, but Matty Cash (calf) has been back in training for a week and could feature.
Hugo Lloris (groin), Ryan Sessegnon (thigh) and Rodrigo Bentancur (knee) are likely to miss the rest of May. Clement Lenglet (shoulder) has been training and is expected to be part of the squad this weekend.
Verdict
With just three games remaining in the Premier League season, the winner of this match could take a massive step towards securing European football for the 2023/24 season.
Aston Villa have suffered back-to-back 1-0 losses to Manchester United and Wolves, but their stellar home form will mean they will be confident of bouncing back against a leaky Spurs defence.
While Villa are in the form of their lives at home, winning their last five without conceding a goal, Tottenham are an absolute shambles on their travels. Ryan Mason's men are winless in six and have conceded 19 goals.
Although they haven't lost all of those games, that average of 3.16 goals per game against is the club's worst defensive sequence since the Premier League began.
A 1-0 win over Crystal Palace settled the nerves and allowed them to move two points clear of seventh-placed Brighton & Hove Albion. The worry for Tottenham is Roberto De Zerbi's side have two games in hand.
Languishing in the bottom third of the table under Steven Gerrard, Aston Villa could only dream of European qualification. Their form under Unai Emery has made the dream a reality, and a win against Tottenham could see them go sixth.
That outcome would require Brighton to slip up at Arsenal, which is possible, and a five-goal swing at Villa Park. The way Tottenham have been defending on their travels, that's also possible.
From a betting perspective, goals do look likely. Villa's home games have averaged 2.82 goals per game this season despite five consecutive clean sheets.
Only one side outside the top three has scored more goals on their travels than Tottenham, and only Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest have conceded more outside of the bottom three sides.
Even before Tottenham's 6-1 hammering at St James' Park and their thrilling 4-3 loss at Anfield, their previous 15 away games this season have produced an average of 3.26 goals. Spurs have only failed to score twice on their travels.
Villa have scored in all but two of their home games, with Ollie Watkins spearheading the attack and scoring in seven of their last nine wins. Their fluent attacking play should be enough to pull Spurs apart.
We expect the Villans to make a fast start and test Spurs' resolve. They tend to bend and break, so we're backing Aston Villa to win a high-scoring game and Ollie Watkins to find the net again.
