Premier League title race can stay close

Following the opening 12 rounds of matches, only three points separated the top five teams in the table. Such a bunched top of the table is not unusual considering recent seasons, but the quality of the teams involved offers hope that there will not be a runaway winner.

Reigning champions Manchester City headed the pack after 12 games, closely followed by Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Aston Villa.

Man City still odds-on favourites

City remain odds-on favourites to win the title for an unprecedented fourth year in a row, with Arsenal and Liverpool viewed as the most realistic challengers, at odds of 4/1 and 11/2, respectively.

Tottenham are a general 25/1 shot and while the odds on the Premier League winner being Aston Villa are 80/1, the Leicester factor means Unai Emery’s side should not be discounted.

 

 

When Leicester caused their 5,000/1 upset when winning the Premier League in 2016, they were one point behind Man City after 12 games of the season and while logic does suggest it is unlikely Villa will finish as champions, Emery has fashioned the club’s strongest team for many years.

It is to be hoped that title race does not turn out the way it did on the last occasion, when only three points separated the top five teams after 12 games.

In the 2020-21 season, Tottenham led the way from Liverpool, Leicester, Southampton and Chelsea before Man City put their foot on the accelerator to surge past everyone and eventually win the title by 12 points from Manchester United.

Results in matches between the title rivals will naturally be expected to play a role in who becomes champions but form away from home could turn out to be the decisive factor.

Through the opening 12 games, City, Liverpool and Villa all boasted 100 percent home records but mixed results away from home have ensured that no team have taken a commanding early lead, such as when Liverpool were eight points clear after 12 games in 2019-20, or when City held the same advantage two years before that.

 

 

Arsenal showing solidity

City’s defeats at Wolves and Arsenal, along with their thrilling 4-4 draw at Chelsea, certainly give the impression Pep Guardiola’s side are not going to be the same unstoppable juggernaut that won the treble last season, while three away defeats for Villa indicate where their limitations lie.

Turning draws into wins away from home will be the key to Liverpool sustaining their challenge and Tottenham will need to address the vulnerability which saw them concede two late goals to lose at Wolves, even if Ange Postecoglou’s team had the best away record through the opening 12 games.

And that leaves Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s side are playing a slightly more cautious, circumspect brand of football this season compared to 12 months ago when they threatened to win the title before faltering late on.

But their defensive solidity away from home is in stark contrast to their rivals, and that could prove decisive if the title race remains this tight.