Everton are going down - if the stats are to be believed
- Seb Sternik
- 13 March 2022
Frank Lampard has 12 games left to secure Everton’s Premier League status. Here, Planet Sport takes an in-depth look at the stats and analyses his chances of success.
The mainstream view is that in order for a club to secure its Premier League status, the magic number of points required is 40.
As things stand, Everton currently have 22 points after 26 games - a rate of just 0.84 points per game - and sit just one place above the bottom three.
The Toffees need 14 more points to reach the survival average of 36. This means that from their remaining 12 games, Everton need to improve their points-per-game rate to 1.16.
Question is, where are those points going to come from? We take a look at their final 12 games of the campaign.
Newcastle United (H)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
Looking at the win probability, there's little to separate the teams. Newcastle are enjoying the best spell of the season and at the time of writing, they've gone eight games without defeat.
The last meetings between the clubs took place just four weeks ago as the Magpies won 3-1 at St James' Park.
The signs don't look good for Everton in this one, but they have won four of their last seven home encounters with Newcastle.
Verdict: Considering the Magpies are flying under Eddie Howe, even a point would do for Everton. However, looking at some of their following fixtures, we can't deny that this is a game which Lampard's men should be winning if they are to survive.
Watford (Away)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
West Ham (A)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
Everton have a good record at the London Stadium and have picked up seven points from their last three trips there.
Verdict: A lot can change by the time these two sides go head-to-head, but it's fair to say that a point will be Everton's minimal expectation.
Manchester United (H)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
Verdict: Recent results would suggest no. However, even a point would go a long way in their pursuit of Premier League survival.
Crystal Palace (H)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
Liverpool (A)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
Liverpool are looking to mount a late title challenge and the Toffees don't look to be in a position to derail them.
Verdict: A lot can change by the time these two play, but as things stand, earning a point against the Reds at Anfield would almost feel like a victory.
Chelsea (H)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
Leicester (A)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
That does come as a surprise considering Everton haven't lost this fixture in their four most recent meetings across all competitions.
Verdict: Everton have done well at the King Power Stadium, winning three of their last five visits. However, with the Foxes improving in recent weeks, picking up all three points would take some doing. Another draw could be on the cards in this one.
Brentford (H)
Last PL head-to-head:
Arsenal (A)
Last five PL head-to-heads:
Everton's final game of the season will take place at the Emirates. There is a possibility that this match could have an impact on both the bottom three and the top four.
Will Everton be relegated?
However, the good news for Toffee's supporters is that these are just numbers. In reality, anything is possible, no matter how tough their run-in appears to be.
A red card, an own goal, an injury, a VAR gaffe, a bad refereeing decision, a penalty - these are things unaccounted for by stats. With that in mind, Everton fans shouldn't lose hope ahead of a season-defining 11 games.
