Analysis: Is the Premier League relegation battle over, or can Burnley still send Everton down?

Burnley and Everton involved in the Premier League relegation scrap

The Premier League relegation battle looks a little devoid of drama this year, but just how comfortable should Everton fans be feeling?

If you are a fan of relegation battles, a glance at the Premier League table right now may well leave you feeling a little demoralised about the end of the season.

Everton and Burnley were just a point apart either side of the relegation zone going into last weekend's games, but results conspired to open up a four-point gap for the Toffees.

So, is the relegation scrap already over this season in the Premier League, or is there still some life in it yet?

Remaining games

Everton fixtures

Leicester H

Liverpool A

Chelsea H

Leicester A

Watford A

Brentford H

Palace H

Arsenal A

Burnley fixtures

West Ham A

Southampton H

Wolves H

Watford A

Villa H

Tottenham H

Villa A

Newcastle H

Fixtures analysis

Obviously a basic home/away analysis is essentially useless here, as both teams have the same balance of both still to play, so we'll have to delve a little deeper.

Burnley have been hoping that Everton's tricky fixtures list will be their salvation, and there is basis for that belief.

Those hopes were severely dented when the Toffees beat Manchester United last week, of course, especially as they themselves sank to a demoralising defeat to Norwich.

Everton still have a tough schedule ahead of them, though, especially when compared to Burnley.

Everton remaining fixtures breakdown

Matches vs top six teams: 3

Matches vs mid-table teams: 4

Matches vs bottom six teams: 1

Burnley remaining fixtures breakdown

Matches vs top six teams: 1

Matches vs mid-table teams: 5

Matches vs bottom six teams: 2

While not many would swap Everton's fixtures for Burnley's, the question is whether or not there is sufficient weight in Burnley's favour to overturn the Toffees' four-point advantage.

The answer to that question, is a conclusive 'no'.

Even using each club's points-per-game against the top six, the bottom six and the rest to project their finished points total, it would only result in a two-point swing in Burnley's favour.

It would, though, put Burnley within one surprise result of really shaking things up - assuming Everton don't pull off one of their own, of course.

The key period

Everton don't play next week, and that creates a real opportunity for Burnley to capitalise.

The bad news is that they have a really tough game in which to do it - West Ham away. The Hammers' home record is the fifth best in the Premier League with them having won nine of their 16 games at the London Stadium.

The good news, or perhaps glimmer of hope for Burnley, is that just three days earlier West Ham will have played their Europa League quarter-final second leg in Lyon.

That tie is very much alive at 1-1 after the first leg, and West Ham will have to travel, invest a lot of effort and emotion, possibly play extra time, and recover both physically and mentally for the visit of Burnley.

It will be the tenth time West Ham have played in the Premier League after a Europa League tie on a Thursday, and they have lost five of the other nine.

Still, it's an opportunity for Burnley to maybe catch some tired bodies and minds at the London Stadium, and if they can win that one then the pressure would shift immediately back to Everton.

West Ham Premier League results after Europa League games

L 1-2 Man Utd H

L 1-2 Brentford H

W 1-0 Spurs H

W 3-2 Liverpool H

L 1-2 Man City A

D 0-0 Burnley A

W 2-1 Aston Villa H

L 2-3 Spurs A

L 0-2 Brentford A

That would bring the gap down to just a single point right when Everton are facing a very tough run of games against Leicester (H), Liverpool (A) and Chelsea (H). Burnley's corresponding fixtures, in contrast, are Southampton (H), Wolves (H) and Watford (A).

There is every chance that, by the start of May, Burnley could have forged ahead and cranked up the pressure on Everton going into the final stretch.

If, on the other hand, Burnley can't get points on the board in the next three weeks, it will likely require a miracle to keep them up.

The pivotal questions

Firstly, can Burnley string some wins together?

The reason they are in the position they are right now is because they haven't. The Clarets have won only four Premier League games all season, with two of them coming back-to-back.

Is it too big an ask of them to string together two or even three wins during the key part of the season when the pressure is at its greatest?

In their favour, they do have a run of games coming up against the proverbial 'on the beach' clubs. Historically, teams who are stranded in mid-table with nothing to play for in the last month of the season have played a huge role in relegation scraps.

The second big question is: Can Everton's home form hold?

For all the Toffees' problems this season, Goodison Park has been good to them. A staggering 22 of their 28 Premier League points have been won at home.

It is also fragile, though. For all they have won seven of their 15 home games this season, they have also lost seven.

They certainly can't rely on their away form to keep them up. It is, quite frankly, atrocious. In fact, it is the worst in the Premier League. They have won just once on their travels and lost 11 of their 15 away matches.

Additionally, of their four remaining away games, three of them are against Liverpool, Leicester and Arsenal, who are all among the strongest seven teams at home in the Premier League this season.

That puts enormous emphasis on their home games. On paper they look relatively kind, but the margin for error also looks non-existent.

Is the relegation battle already over?

That's certainly what it felt like after last weekend's results. The reality is that it is still very much alive, although the window for a shake-up is closing fast.

Despite Norwich's win, it's difficult to see the Canaries or Watford getting themselves out of it now. They are six and seven points adrift of safety respectively and have both played a game more than Burnley and Everton.

However, the identity of the final relegated team is still very tough to call. Everton look in total control of the situation right now, but that may be deceiving.

Certainly, opportunity will knock for Burnley in the next three weeks, and it will knock loudly - all while Everton will likely be in damage limitation mode.

If Burnley respond, expect a thrilling finish to the season.