York trends best bet (1445): Great Ambassador ticks all the right boxes for frame finish

14.45 York: Churchill Tyres Handicap (6 furlongs)

We have a bumper card to enjoy here and are tackling this big-field sprint run over six furlongs on ground that is forecast to be good-to-firm. 

There is rain forecast on Wednesday, which may see the going change to good/good-to-soft by the time the action starts.

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With 22 runners scheduled to go to post, the trends below will hopefully reduce the field to three or four runners for further analysis:

• 19/21 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher 
• 17/21 – Aged 6 or younger 
• 17/21 – Had won over this trip before 
• 16/21 – Had run at York before (7 won at the track before) 
• 14/21 – Carried 8st-12lb or more
• 12/21 – Finished unplaced last time out 
•   9/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting 
•   9/21 – Won by a 4-year-old 
•   7/21 – Returned either 6/1 or 7/1 in the betting 
•   4/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out 
•   4/21 – Won their previous race 
•   1/21 – Winning outright favourite 
• 11 of the last 14 winners returned 14/1 or shorter 
• Trainer Richard Fahey won the race in 2018 and 2021 
• Trainer Michael Easterby won the race in 2011 and 2014 
• Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2018 and 2015 
• The last 3 winners were aged 8

Analysis of those trends left us with a shortlist of three, but the withdrawal of our first pick Orazio on Tuesday has reduced that to just a pair of likely candidates:

Great Ambassador could well be back on a winning mark having failed to win since September 2021, although it does always concern me when a losing run stretches that far back.

However, in this case, Ed Dunlop's seven-year-old spent almost two years off the track with an injury, so if coming back to his best form, Great Ambassador certainly will have a chance of winning this after finishing second in the Ayr Gold Cup and having won at Listed level before.

Suggested best bet: Great Ambassador in the 14:45 at York

Woven finished ninth in the aforementioned Newmarket race and remains high in the handicap despite having trouble winning races. 

Michael Dods' eight-year-old has a knack for placing in this kind of race on a regular basis, but has trouble getting his nose in front with only three wins in 45 races. 

Oisin Murphy is on board and that could help him negate his low draw, but it is more about the will and ability to win a race of this type.

As usual these big-field sprint handicaps are very hard to call, but based on the trends and the weather forecast I am suggesting an each-way bet on Great Ambassador as a replacement for our original pick Orazio. 

As always, be sure to look around for extra places and best prices.

READ MORE: Wednesday ITV racing tips: Best bets for York and Ffos Las on May 15