York Dante Festival racing tip: Trends point to Stressfree each-way option

14:45 York: Knights Solicitors Handicap (1 mile 2½ furlongs)

After our each-way selections on the first two days gave us an 11/1 third on Wednesday and an 8/1 runner-up (beaten by a neck) on Thursday, we're hoping to complete the set by going one better with Friday's selction.

Planet Sport Bet Daily Special: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Reach finishes in the first 5 places, get a £5 Free Bet

As usual will use a number of statistical winning trends to help reduce reduce the line-up to a more manageable shortlist of just three most likely candidates:

• 21/21 – Aged 7 or younger 
• 20/21 – Had run over 1m2f before 
• 18/21 – Did not win their last race 
• 16/21 – Won over at least 1m2f before 
• 15/21 – Came from stall 5 or higher 
• 15/21 – Carried 8st-11lb or more 
• 13/21 – Had a previous run that season 
• 12/21 – Won by a 4-year-old (9 of the last 15) 
•   9/21 – Finished third or better last time out 
•   7/21 – Had run at York before 
•   6/21 – Won by the favourite 
•   3/21 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (2007, 2008, 2009) 
•   3/21 – Won by trainer John Gosden 
•   2/21 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute 
• 13 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 2023 Winner: Marhaba The Champ (10/1)

 

Stressfree has only had eight runs and has managed to win twice and finish second three times, so has proven to be very consistent in his short career so far. 

David O’Meara’s four-year-old has won over the trip, but all his runs have been at a much lower level than he faces here, so he would need to improve significantly to win this.

That said, he does have scope to improve, and with cheekpieces back on and Hollie Doyle at the reins, he could bounce back from his last outing a month ago, when Ripon’s undulating track perhaps was his undoing.

Suggested best bet: Stressfree in the 14:45 at York

Theme Park has been dropped in trip since being gelded, so maybe being upped in trip will help him rediscover his form, although a concern is that the stable is going through a quiet time of late.

The Nigel Tinkler-trained four-year-old has not won on turf, but has run well at York, finishing second twice over this sort of trip, most recently last September, and I believe he can outrun his odds here. 

Barley has had 18 starts winning twice and placing a further three times. He has been running in lower class races and has placed second over this trip. 

Tim Easterby has opted for first-time cheekpieces, which should help him concentrate and keep calm. His only start this season was a decent third at Redcar 15 days ago, so with some improvement the five-year-old may challenge for places.

There are plenty of challengers for this race that miss out due to the trends and they include Botanical, Majestic and Reach. 

However, based on purely the trends, I am going to suggest Stressfree as an each-way bet, and remember to look around for extra places and best prices.
 

READ MORE: Friday ITV racing tips: Best bets for York and Newbury on May 17