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  • York Best Bets: Trends Pinpoint Northern Express And Mirsky In Wide Open Hambleton Handicap

York best bets: Trends pinpoint Northern Express and Mirsky in wide-open Hambleton Handicap

After getting us off to a profitable start with his selections on Wednesday, Andrew of Fiosrach aims his trends analysis at one of the big handicaps on day two of York’s Dante Festival.

14:45 York: Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap (1 mile)

Despite our main pick (Orazio) being withdrawn from our featured race on day one, Great Ambassador filled his horseshoes nicely to finish third at 11/1, while our other shortlisted selection, Woven, was just a neck further back in fourth at 17/2.

We’re looking for more each-way returns on day two of York’s Dante meeting, and we’re using trends to reduce this 20-runner field to a more manageable number of likely candidates. 

Planet Sport Bet Daily Special: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Mirsky finishes in the first 5 places, get a £5 Free Bet

The Hambleton is run over a mile and the trends below will hopefully help us to find the winner:

  • 18/18 – Rated between 96-105 
  • 17/18 – Had won over a mile before 
  • 16/18 – Carried 8-7 or more in weight 
  • 16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter 
  • 14/18 – Favourites placed in the top 4 
  • 13/18 – Aged between 4-6 years-old 
  • 13/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter 
  • 13/18 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks 
  • 12/18 – Came from a single-figure draw 
  • 11/18 – Had won at least 4 times before 
  •   8/18 – Placed last time out 
  •   8/18 – Aged 4 years-old 
  •   3/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co) 
  •   1/18 – Won last time out 
  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried 9st-0lb or more in weight 
  • Cruyff Turn won the race in 2022 
  • 2023 Winner: Croupier (7/1)

Northern Express has a good record at York having won three times and placing in multiple races, and last year he followed up a narrow win here in July by coming runner-up of 12 in the Autumn Mile on his last visit. 

Michael Dods’ stable and jockey Paul Mulrennan are in decent form and the six-year-old handles all kinds of going, but would prefer quicker ground despite having won on soft going over this trip.

Suggested bet (1): Northern Express each-way in the 14:45 at York

 

Al Mubhir is still high enough in the handicap and has certainly been paying the price for his consistency. 
The William Haggas-trained five-year-old has run well at Listed level, but I have a sneaking suspicion that he needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap before winning again.

Metal Merchant has an ideal profile for this race and has won a big-field handicap when beating 20 rivals to land the Spring Cup at Newbury last time out a month ago.

Jack Channon’s stable is in blistering form with a 30% winning strike rate over the last fortnight, and Metal Merchant should go close under James Doyle, although his price does look on the short side considering his negative high draw.

Mirsky has moved to David O’Meara from France and has already had a debut run for his trainer, who is adept at improving other yards’ cast-offs. 

The capable five-year-old has a good winning strike rate with four wins in eleven races and has more scope for improvement than most in this race. 

Those four victories came in decent races in France, and I am sure it will not take Mirsky long to get off the mark in the UK, with any rain probably improving his chances further.

Suggested bet (2): Mirsky each-way in the 14:45 at York

 

With such a big field I would often put up two horses so that is exactly what I am doing for this race, suggesting each-way bets on Northern Express and Mirsky

As always, please be sure to shop around for the best prices and for any extra places (five are widely available, but I’ve seen six and even seven up for grabs in some quarters).

READ MORE: Thursday ITV racing tips: Best bets for York and Salisbury on May 16

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