Southwell best bets (1830): Darwell Lion bidding to turn tables on King’s Code

18:30 Southwell: Best Racing Odds Guaranteed at BetMGM Handicap (1 mile)  

Looking for value beyond the market leaders, Darwell Lion catches the eye after finishing just a place behind current favourite King’s Code in a hot Lingfield handicap just ten days ago.

While King’s Code had every chance after a perfect passage just in behind the leaders, Darwell Lion needs his effort marking up significantly because, in a race run very much to suit the prominent racers, who filled the first three places, Darwell Lion did best of those who tried to come from further back.

Unconsidered in the market, he showed that to be all wrong as he finished a never-nearer  fourth of 12 despite racing keenly in only his third run for Ruth Carr, who fits him with a hood today to combat that keenness, and should now know much more about him.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Ernies Valentine finishes in the first 3 places, get a £5 Free Bet

He is a pound lower in this ostensibly easier race, which means he is a pound better off with his old rival, King’s Code, and he too has a very nice draw in stall 4.

He has enjoyed his best form on tapeta, having won over a mile at Wolverhampton as well as running within a length of the winner over this trip in a Class 3 at Newcastle.

Rated 93 in this sphere just over a year ago, he looks an attractive prospect in his current mood off just 85, especially in 0-85 company against whom he wouldn’t have been anywhere near eligible to compete at that time.

He stays this trip strongly, so he should enjoy this long run-in, and Ruth Carr has recorded two winners and a second from her three runners at this venue over the last couple of weeks.

Suggested best bet: Darwell Lion each-way in the 18:30 at Southwell

• Tips and analysis provided by Steve Jones who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr

Of the others, we supported King’s Code (14/1 to 17/2) when he finished third of 12 in front of Darwell Lion in the above-mentioned race, which was certainly much stronger than this one.

The pair who finished ahead of King’s Code are now rated 97 and 94, and significantly, the four-year-old’s two all-weather wins both came on the Wolverhampton tapeta, so it looks as though he will prefer this similar track to the very quick polytrack circuit he had at Lingfield recently.

Eleven of the dozen runners in that last outing were rated 85-95, which compares extremely favourably with today’s 71-85 affair, and off an unchanged mark, and from another good draw in stall 3, King’s Code looks sure to go well again in this easier race.

Next Best bet: King’s Code each-way in the 18:30 at Southwell

 

READ MORE: Southwell racing tips: Best bets for Monday January 30