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Sandown trends best bet: Terwada looks a strong each-way punt

After a big winner last weekend, Andrew of Fiosrach applies his trends-based analysis to this weekend's racing at Sandown.

14:05 Sandown 1m Listen To BetMGM On talkSPORT Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Last Saturday saw our sole selection Queen of the Pride win the Lester Piggot Fillies’ Stakes at 9/2 having been 10/1 at time of writing.

This Saturday sees decent racing from both Sandown and York, and I am looking at a sixteen runner handicap run over a mile. I have used the trends below to reduce the field to three or four runners:

10/11 – Didn’t win last time out

9/11 – Rated between 90-94

9/11 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight

9/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks

9/11 – Had won over 1m before

8/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

8/11 – Had run at the course before

7/11 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher

6/11 – Aged 4 years-old

6/10 – Had won between 2-4 times before

4/11 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newmarket (2) last time out

3/11 – Winning favourites

2/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

Having applied the trends above I have reduced the field to the following four runners:

Dancing Magic has had thirteen starts and has not yet managed to win, although he has finished second three times and third once.

The stable is not in the best of form, but Oisin Murphy is in red hot form with a 26% strike rate in the last fortnight.

Dancing Magic has been highly tried with sight of his thirteen runs in Listed or Group company. 

I am always a bit wary of horses that are a short enough in the market but are yet to win. 

Classic has been a bit disappointing considering how highly thought of he was by his trainer in his two year old season.

He has not won over this trip but has won at Sandown previously. His seasonal debut did not go well, as he was bumped into at the start and was always behind as a result. He should go better on Saturday; however, he is yet to win at this level.

On breeding a mile should certainly be in scope and may bring about improvement.
Farasi Lane is a course and distance winner and has shown improved form despite his age since switching trainers.

He is yet to win above Class 3 level and needs a career best performance to win this race. The stable and jockey are having a relatively quiet time and Farasi Lane is older than the usual winner.

 

 

 

Terwada comes from a stable with a 20% strike rate in the last two weeks and Tom Marquand is in red hot form even with rides outside of his retained stable (William Haggas).

Terwada is back on his last winning mark and showed improved form last time out from his seasonal debut. If there is further improvement he should be thereabouts in this race.

Dancing Magic is the horse with the best form having placed at Listed and Group level, but as I mentioned he is yet to win a race.

Terwada is my selection based on the trends and the form of both the jockey and stable.

I am suggesting an each bet on Terwada and please look for additional places and best prices from your bookmaker.

 

READ MORE: Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Best bets for York, Sandown and Chester on June 15

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