Sandown racing top tip: Trends suggests West Balboa can defy top weight in Heroes Handicap Hurdle

15.10 Sandown:  Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle (2 miles 7½ furlongs)

Last weekend’s trend pick Forward Plan gave us a tremendous run, only losing by an ever-diminishing short head and another stride would have seen him win. 

Agonisingly close as it was, any profit is better than a loss and we will move onwards and upwards to examine recent winning trends in what promises to be a decent Class 1 hurdle at Sandown on Saturday. 

• 8/8 - Ran in the last 6 weeks 
• 7/8 - Didn’t win last time out 
• 7/8 - Won between 2-4 times 
• 7/8 - Returned odds between 5/1 and 10/1 
• 7/8 - Aged 8 or younger 
• 6/8 - Irish bred 
• 6/8 - Carried 10-10 or less in weight 
• 5/8 - Unplaced favourites 
• 6/8 - Rated between 129-134 
• 4/8 - Ran at Kempton last time out 
• 1/8 - Winning favourites 
• Trainer Venetia Williams has won the last two runnings

Using the trends above I narrowed the 15-runner field down to just four:

West Balboa is the class act in this race, and she carries 12 stone less the three pounds that jockey Tristan Durrell claims. 

Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old has won at Grade 3 level and was once runner-up behind Stage Star in the Grade 1 Challow Novice Hurdle. 

The main challenge for her jockey will be to get West Balboa to settle early, but two of the mare’s wins have been in big fields where she had cover to help her settle.

Suggested bet: West Balboa each-way in the 15:10 at Sandown

Ed Keeper has only had six runs over hurdles, winning two and placing in the other four. He will be suited by drying ground and is already proven at the trip, which is a positive. 

The Sam Thomas-trained six-year-old was not beaten far on heavy ground last time but looked impressive when winning by over five lengths on his previous start on better ground. This is a much tougher race, however, especially off a more challenging career-high mark.

Good Look Charm gets in here off an extremely low weight and also has the excellent Ben Godfrey taking off a valuable three pounds. 

She returned to hurdling this season after a none-too-successful stint over fences and she ran well enough in a decent Class 2 last time out. It will take a career-best performance from her to win this, but her light weight could see her run into a place.

Planet Sport Bet Daily Special: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Good Look Charm finishes in the first 4 places, get a £5 Free Bet

Tanganyika comes from Venetia Williams’ stable which remains in good form and has won the last two runnings of this race with Green Book. 

The six-year-old is more exposed than most of his rivals here, having had 14 runs with three wins at a much lower level than this. His price reflects his chances, and I would be surprised if he can bring up the hat-trick for the stable.

This has been one of the most difficult races to analyse and there are a couple of other threats in the field, namely Ambitious Fellow (whose chances are assessed by jockey Harry Cobden in his PlanetSportBet blog) and Scamallach Liath.

Based on the trends, however, I am advising an each-way bet on the top weight West Balboa, as I think the bigger field here will play to her strengths.

If she is held up just behind the leaders and settles, then I expect her to be brought through to lead coming to the final hurdle.

READ MORE: Harry Cobden’s Planet Sport blog: Hermes Allen the one to beat at Sandown