Sandown best each-way bet: Kinondo Kweto ticks all the right boxes in Gold Cup finale

Our two selections for last week’s Scottish National ran well for a long way before fading in the latter stages on ground that was quicker than expected.

We now move on to the jump season’s finale at Sandown, and despite not finding a race to cover on the Friday with some decent races on the flat, I think the bet365 Gold Cup is perfect for a trends analysis.

15:35 Sandown bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3 miles 4½ furlongs) 

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A big field goes to post, and I am using the trends below to reduce that to a more manageable three or four runners:

• 19/20 – Had raced in the last 63 days 
• 18/20 – Carried under 11st-6lb in weight 
• 16/20 – Had won over 3+ miles before 
• 16/20 – Aged 9 or younger 
• 15/20 – Carried 11stone or less 
• 14/20 - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 13/20 – Officially rated 140 or higher 
• 12/20 – Came from the top 7 in the betting 
• 12/20 – Had raced in the last 25 days 
• 11/20 – Finished 4th or worse last time out 
•   5/20 – Won with 10st in weight 
•   4/20 – Won last time out 
•   3/20– Trained by Paul Nicholls 
•   3/20 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out 
•   3/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse 
•   2/20 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out 
•   2/20– Trained by Philip Hobbs  
•   2/20 - Trained by Alan King (2 of last 4) 
•   2/20 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
•    1/20 – Winning favourites 
• The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13/1

After applying the trends above I am left with a shortlist of three runners to analyse further:

Nick Rockett aims to boost Willie Mullins’ title chances by winning the most valuable race of the day, with more than £95,000 up for grabs.

This seven-year-old is limited in his chasing experience, having only had four chases and none of those over three miles plus, although he has won a point to point race over a long trip, so stamina should not be an issue. 

He was a well-beaten favourite in the Irish National on his last start and would need to improve on that run to compete here.

Kinondo Kwetu comes from one of the smaller stables in the race, but he arrives here with six wins to his name from 11 attempts over fences, with his best form having come on good ground, including nearly all of those victories. 

Sam England does very well with her chasers with a 16% win strike rate over the last five seasons, and Kinondo Kweto is likely to be sent off with a big price which would have been much shorter if Paul Nicholls or Willie Mullins trained him!

Suggested bet: Kinondo Kwetu in the 15:35 at Sandown

Kitty’s Light is a small horse with a huge heart and is the clear early favourite here and has an excellent strike rate over fences including winning this last season. 

The Christian Williams-trained eight-year-old jumps for fun and will give his best as he does in every race.

His price seems a little short bearing in mind the opposition and he is five pounds higher in the ratings than when winning this last year.

There are plenty in with a shout in a race of this nature, of course, but based on the trends I am suggesting an each-way bet on Kinondo Kwetu, and as ever, be sure to shop around for best prices and extra places.

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