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Royal Ascot tips: The Very Man and Temporize trending towards frame finish in big-field Ascot Stakes

With the Group 1 action behind us on the opening day of Royal Ascot, Andrew Of Fiosrach has saved his trends-based analysis for the first big-field handicap of the five-day Festival.

17:05 Royal Ascot: Ascot Stakes Handicap (2½ miles)

We were sadly out of luck on Saturday with our selection Terwada finishing one place away from a return in fifth place, but the shortlist as a whole performed well, with Classic (2nd 16/1), Terwada (5th 12/1) and Farasi Lane (7th 16/1) all giving us a decent run for our money.

On Day 1 of the Royal Ascot Festival, we’re tackling the 20-runner field lining up for the Ascot Stakes and using the trends below we’re hoping to reduce this to a more manageable three or four runners:

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  • 19/22 – Carried 9-0 or more 
  • 16/22 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season 
  • 16/22 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners 
  • 15/22 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before 
  • 12/22 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old 
  • 12/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting 
  •   9/22 – Won their previous race 
  •   4/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 12) 
  •   3/22 – Trained by the Pipe stable 
  •   3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 12) 
  •   3/22 – Winning favourites 
  •   2/22 – Trained by Ian Williams
  • Just one winner (or placed) horse from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings

The trends above left us with a shortlist of four runners:

At ten years old, The Very Man is the oldest horse in the field and boasts a 50 percent top-two record in his 10 flat runs to date, and he should strip fitter for his outing at Down Royal 18 days ago.

Trainer Jessie Harrington is renowned for producing horses in top shape for a big-race target and if replicating his form at last September’s Irish Cesarewitch, then he must have a chance of running into the places.

Suggested bet: The Very Man in the 17:05 at Royal Ascot

 

Boher Road has won four of his nine flat races including both of his last two outings, which has seen his official rating go up nine pounds, and my main concern with him is the going, which, unless it is watered, is likely to be quicker than this fellow likes. 

He won his last race at Kilbeggan by a cosy 6½ lengths and could have further improvement to come, especially if you also factor in his hurdle rating. He has won his last two starts for this jockey so that also bodes well for a good showing here.

Almuhit finished well behind Boher Road in that final start for both, but with the enigmatic Emmet Mullins training you never know what will happen. One thing for sure is that he would not have entered Almuhit if he did not think he was capable of competing. 

The going is less of a concern as he has won on good ground previously on the flat, plus he has an 11-pound pull at the weights with Boher Road, so he should be in the mix.

Temporize is partnered by Tom Marquand, who is on red hot form with a 23 percent strike rate over the last fortnight. Syd Hosie’s five-year-old won the Goodwood Handicap last August and arrives in good shape after coming runner-up of seven on season debut at the same venue 25 days ago. 

That big-field handicap success over this type of trip is a definite positive, and with his adeptness for any going, if he can tuck in behind the leaders until the final furlong he should be there or thereabouts.

Suggested bet: Temporize each-way in the 17:05 at Royal Ascot

 

There are multiple challengers here not picked up by the trends, and as usual jump trainers are to be feared, with the Willie Mullins-trained My Lyka and Gordon Elliott’s Pied Piper both looking capable of winning this. 

Based on the trends alone, however, I am suggesting each-way bets on both The Very Man and Temporize, and as ever, please shop around for extra places and best prices.

READ MORE: Royal Ascot Tuesday tips: Best bets for ITV action on Day 1, June 18

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