Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trends analysis: Feed The Flame can set Longchamp alight

15.05 Longchamp: Qatar Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe (1 mile 4 furlongs)

We have a wonderful Sunday afternoon to look forward to at Paris Longchamp, which is usually one of the highlights of any flat season,

The Arc is the centrepiece involving the best horses from multiple generations, all in peak form and ready to do battle at the highest level.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Ace Impact wins, get a £5 Free Bet!

Like any other race you can use past trends to try and reduce the field, and those employed below will hopefully help identify the winner:

• 20/21 – Had won a Group 1 race before
• 19/21 – Had won over 1 mile 4 furlongs
• 16/21 – Had 4 or more runs that season
• 16/21 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
• 15/21 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
• 15/21 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
• 15/21 – Had won at least 5 times before
• 15/21 – Won last time out
• 14/21 – Had run at Longchamp before
• 12/21 – Had won at Longchamp previously
• 12/21 – Placed favourites
• 11/21 – Aged 3 years old
• 10/21 – Won by a French-based yard
•   9/21 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
•   9/21 – Female winners
•   6/21 – Winning favourites
•   6/21 – Won by a UK-based yard
•   3/21 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 8)
•   3/21 – Trained by Andre Fabre (8 wins in all)
•   2/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
• 3 of the last 14 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
• Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
• Since 1976 we’ve seen just 4 winners aged 5 or older
• 18 of the last 29 winners were aged 3 years old
• Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
• Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times

The trends produced a shortlist of three runners: Feed The Flame, Westover and Continuous

Suggested bet : Feed The Flame each-way in the 15:05 at ParisLongchamp

Feed The Flame is the only French horse in the shortlist and won the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp in July. 

He copes with all types of going, which is always a plus, while his trainer voiced the horse is at his best on soft ground, so the going on Sunday will suit and we should see the best of Feed The Flame.

Westover was sixth in this race last season, and I expect him to finish closer this time around, as course experience is important in this race and his form this season is stronger than last.

He is remarkably consistent and probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves having only finished out of the top three twice in twelve starts. 

Continuous won the St Leger in fine style after improving gradually as the season progressed, and it’s worth noting that the Ballydoyle team have supplemented Continuous at a cost of £120,000, so they must be confident. 

It is interesting when you consider the calibre of horse from the stable that they have only managed two wins in the Arc in 21 years.

This looks like a strong renewal and the favourite Ace Impact, who is unbeaten, was eliminated by the trends as he has a single-digit draw, has not run at Longchamp, nor has he won over the trip. He has looked very good in his races, but those negatives are a lot to overcome.

The selection based on trends is an each way bet on Feed The Flame and his double-figure price is good value in my view.

READ MORE: Epsom Downs racing tips: Best bets for Sunday October 1