Plumpton trends analysis racing tip (1450): Gold Clermont targets Sussex National success

First of all, I want to wish Happy New Year to all who read this column, and I hope it will be a healthy and profitable one for you and yours.

We had a trends analysis all lined up for Saturday’s Veteran’s Chase at Sandown, but unfortunately that meeting was cancelled, so we’re aiming instead at this competitive-looking chase on Plumpton’s Sunday card.

14.50 Plumpton BetGoodwin Sussex National Handicap Chase (3 miles 4½ furlongs)

I have used the trends below to narrow the field to three runners for further analysis:

• 17/17 – Had won over at least 3 miles (chase) 
• 16/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks 
• 16/17 – Aged between 7-9 years old 
• 14/17 – Carried under 11st-6lb 
• 14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 13/17 – Won between 1-3 times over fences 
• 12/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old 
• 10/17 – Placed favourites 
•   8/17 – Irish bred 
•   7/17 – Won last time out 
•   2/17 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 4) 
•   2/17 – Ridden by Tom Cannon (2 of the last 9) 
•   2/17 – Winning favourites 
• The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2

Having used the trends above I am left with a shortlist of three runners: Gold Clermont, Foxboro and Sporting Ace.

Suggested bet: Gold Clermont in the 14:50 at Plumpton

Gold Clermont has been running well at a lower level and her wins have come at Fakenham, which is a very similar course – sharp and undulating, and this course (Plumpton) twice, so she certainly knows how to get round here.

This eight-year-old mare also stays well, having won over three miles and five furlongs at Fakenham last time out.

Her claiming jockey Philip Armson gets on well with the horse, so that’s another positive that suggests she could make a bold bid here.

Foxboro will certainly see out the trip having won over further in his latest race at Exeter with the same claiming jockey onboard. 

Robert Walford’s nine-year-old may not be the fastest horse in the world, but he will gallop to the line and could pass tiring horses in the final half mile, so with a clear round I fully expect him to be there or thereabouts in the final stage.

Sporting Ace has only run in two chases, which might mean he lacks experience for a contest of this nature.

The Neil King-trained eight-year-old has not run more than three miles over fences, which is another concern as stamina is a prerequisite for this type of race.

Outside of the three trends horses Rose of Arcadia from the Tizzard stable must be considered, due to the stables excellent record in this race. Freddie Gingell taking off five pounds also boosts that one’s chances.

Based purely on the trends, however, I think an each-way bet on Gold Clermont is worth a try, as his trainer Andy Irvine stated that this was the horse’s target when winning at the course last year.

 

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