Newmarket best bet: All systems go for Apollo One on season debut
Run for Oscar ridden by David Egan wins Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket
With Newmarket’s Guineas weekend already upon us, our resident trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach takes a look at one of the races that form the build-up to the first Classic of the season.
13:45 Newmarket 6f (Row) William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+)
While most eyes will be turning to the 2000 Guineas later on Saturday afternoon, I am focusing on the first of the two Heritage Handicaps earlier on the bumper nine-race card.
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With 16 runners entered, we should be in for an intriguing race and by using the trends below I will hopefully reduce the field to three or four:
- 10/11 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 10/11 - Won 3+ times before
- 10/11 - Had won over 6f before
- 9/11 - Didn’t win last time out
- 8/11 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 8/11 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 8/11 - Returned 13/2 or bigger
- 7/11 - Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley course)
- 7/11 - Unplaced favourites
- 7/11 - Carried 9-3 or more in weight
- 6/11 - Rated 100+
- 3/11 - Winning favourites
- 2/11 - Trained by Richard Fahey
- 0/11 - Winners from stalls 1 or 2
- 6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
- The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.5/1
Using the trends above I have reduced the field to four runners:
Apollo One has paid for his consistency and despite not having won since November 2022 is six pounds higher than that last winning mark.
The six-year-old does bring excellent form into this race having finished runner-up in both the Wokingham Stakes and the Steward’s Cuplast season.
Apollo One handles all types of going, so there should be no concerns about the surface, and if he can replicate last summer’s form, then he will not be far away in this race.
Suggested best bet: Apollo One each-way in the 13:45 at Newmarket
Aleezdancer has had a recent run, which is a big plus and his draw in stall four is another positive, although his best form is on soft and heavy going, so he may find the good ground a challenge.
Kevin Ryan’s five-year-old ran well in several big heritage handicaps last season and should be thereabouts if getting a clear run.
Desert Cop comes from Andrew Balding’s in-form stable and Oisin Murphy seems to be riding better than ever. That said, the four-year-olds wide draw is not ideal, as six of the last ten winners of this race have been drawn in stall six or lower.
We can expect Murphy having to bring Desert Cop in behind the field and bide his time in the hope that a gap opens up in the final stages.
Sterling Knight has also had a recent run and finished third of 16 in a reasonable Class 3 handicap.
However, this is a huge step up in class, and Ed Dunlop’s five-year-old has never won higher than Class 3 and is exposed having had 32 runs.
All that said, his strike rate on turf is impressive, so he cannot be totally discounted as he has a good draw in stall 3.
The top two in the weights could well defy the trends and win this, as both Rohaan and Noble Style are Group class performers.
Based on the trends, however, I am suggesting an each-way bet on Apollo One and as ever, be sure to shop around for best prices and extra places from your bookmaker.
READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Newmarket, Goodwood and Thirsk on May 4
