Newmarket best bet: Winning trends put Mill Stream on top of competitive shortlist

Wednesday’s selection was Ottoman Fleet, who did us proud in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes on Wednesday, easing home by a length as the well-backed 7/4 favourite, but we hope you were able to match the more attractive 7/2 price that was available earlier on.

Thursday’s selection comes from the Abernant Stakes, which has been run since 1969 and has produced some classy winners over the years, including Summerghand, Brando and Mayson. 

15.00 Newmarket: Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (6 furlongs - Rowley course)

I will use the winning trends below to reduce the field to three and carry out further analysis:

• Age – 9/12 were aged between 4 & 6 
• Price – 2/12 were favourites, 
•             9/12 were in the top 3 in the betting 
• Last Run – 3/12 won on their previous run 
•                    6/12 had their last run over 159 days ago 
• Course Form – 9/12 had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket, 
•                         8/12 had at least 1 previous win at Newmarket 
• Distance Form – 10/12 had at least 4 previous runs over 6 furlongs, 
•                             11/12 #had at least 1 previous win over 6 furlongs 
• Flat Form – 9/12 winners had at least 12 previous flat runs, 
•                    11/12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins, 
•                      9/12 winners had at least 4 previous flat wins 
• Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 104 or higher 
• Group Wins – 3/12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race 
• Season Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 
•                           2/12 winners had a previous win that season

Having used the trends above I have a shortlist of the following three horses:

Mill Stream has had wind surgery over the winter and when last seen he finished eighth in the Group 1 Champion Sprint at Ascot on soft going, but he has won at Group 3 and Listed level, also on soft going. 

However, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s four-year-old has also won on good to firm at a lower level, so the current decent ground should be well within his scope. 

If his wind operation has made a positive difference, then we can expect Mill Stream to be in the mix here.

Suggested best bet: Mill Stream each-way in the 15:00 at Newmarket

Spycatcher has won over course and distance previously and has won on his first start each of the last three seasons. Seasonal debut is not a problem, and the only negative is the current form of Karl Burke’s yard, which is poor at present.

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Mitbaahy has had most of his wins over five furlongs, but his latest win last August was over six, and the. five-year-old has won at Group 3 level and twice at Listed level, so class should not be an issue. 

The stable has only had six runners in the last fortnight and not had a winner, and according to a recent interview with trainer Charles Hills, Mitbaahy has been working well at home and Jamie Spencer has a good record in the race. 

The same yard won this race last season with their other entrant Garrus, who is also supposed to be moving better than ever.

This was extremely hard to call between the three shortlisted as I think all will be there or thereabouts, but I am suggesting an each way bet on Mill Stream.

READ MORE: Newmarket racing tips: Best bets for Thursday April 18