Newmarket best bet: William Buick to bide his time on Ottoman Fleet

15:00 Newmarket bet365 Earl of Sefton Stakes (1 mile 1 furlong - Rowley course)

We’re hoping to continue the form that brought us 14/1 Aintree winner, Sans Bruit (5/1 SP), along with two 40/1 places (Galvin and Ain’t That A Shame) in the Grand National.

Hopefully we can transfer that success to this important Flat meeting at Newmarket, which includes trials for the Guineas meeting to be held at the start of May.

First up I am looking at the Earl of Sefton Stakes, which is run over a niche trip of one mile and one furlong, and as usual I have applied previous winning trends to reduce the field to a more manageable number:

• 16/16 – Had won over a least a mile in the past 
• 15/16 – Favourites placed in the top three 
• 13/16 – Last ran 5 months or more ago 
• 13/16 – Had raced at the track before (7 won) 
• 12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years old 
• 11/16 – Won at least 3 times in the past 
• 11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 10/16 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past 
•   9/16 – Had won a Group/Listed race before 
•   7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out 
•   6/16 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3) 
•   4/16 – Won last time out 
•   3/16 – Trained by John Gosden 
•   5/16 – Winning favourites 
•   2/16 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam 
•   3/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby 
•   4/16 – Ridden by William Buick 
•   1/16 – Winners from stall 1 
• 6 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 2-4 (inc.) 
• The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

Ottoman Fleet won this last season off a one-pound higher rating and had a similar winter running in Dubai with three starts that yielded a second and a third. 

The five-year-old has won three and been second once over this course, including winning this Group 3 last year with a couple of lengths to spare. 

Charlie Appleby has his string in great form with six wins from his last 18 runners (plus six runner-up spots) for a 33% win rate, and William Buick's presence in the saddle only reinforces his prospects.

I expect Buick to tuck his Ottoman Fleet behind the first four or five runners before making his move coming into the final furlong.

Suggested best bet: Ottoman Fleet in the 15:00 at Newmarket

Embesto has won three of his last five starts in 2023, all of which have been over a mile, so this extra furlong is unfamiliar territory. 

On breeding he should relish the step up in trip and he has already won at Group 3 level, so class should not be an issue. 

Roger Varian’s four-year-old won first time out last season, and the only negative is his lack of experience over the Rowley course.

Royal Rhyme has won four of seven starts on turf, but none of those have been higher than Listed level. Most of those wins have been over a furlong further, although he has won over shorter trips. 

Karl Burke’s stable has been quiet in the first few weeks of the season, so it may take a run to see the best of Royal Rhyme, despite being the forecast favourite.

Based on the trends and his love for the course I am suggesting a win bet on Ottoman Fleet to follow up on last season’s success in this race.