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  • Newmarket Guineas Best Bet: Conditions Tailor Made For Classic Bid From French Raider Ramatuelle

Newmarket 1000 Guineas best bet: Conditions tailor-made for Classic bid from French raider Ramatuelle

On the final day of Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, Andrew of Riosrach runs his trends analysis over Sunday’s big race to share his best bet from the second Classic of the new Flat season.

Our tip for Saturday saw Apollo One come a very decent runner-up to earn us some each-way profit at 11/1, and he was only a length behind 22/1 winner Desert Cop, who was also on our final shortlist of likely contenders.

After Saturday's dramatic 2000 Guineas, it’s now the turn of the fillies to put their name on the Classics honours board as 16 runners line up for Sunday’s 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.

15.40 Newmarket Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (1 mile)

By using the trends below, hopefully we can narrow down the large field to a more manageable shortlist:

  • 20/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out 
  • 17/22 – Had won a Group race before 
  • 16/22 – Had won 2-3 times before 
  • 15/22 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc.) 
  • 14/22 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further) 
  • 14/22 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less 
  • 14/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting 
  • 13/22 – Won their previous race 
  • 13/22 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before 
  • 11/22 – Returned a double-figure price 
  • 10/22 – Won on their seasonal debut
  • 10/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out 
  • 10/22 – Favourites unplaced 
  •   9/22 – Irish-trained winners 
  •   9/22 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before 
  •   6/22 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8 
  •   6/22 – Previous Group One winners 
  •   4/22 – Won by a US bred horse 
  •   4/22 – Won by the favourite 
  •   4/22– Ridden by Ryan Moore 
  •   3/22 – French-trained winners 
  • Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings 
  • 11 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc) 
  • The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 12.5/1

Having used the trends above we have narrowed the field down to the following shortlist of three runners:

Dance Sequence was second on her seasonal reappearance here in April and despite losing her unbeaten record her trainer Charlie Appleby was happy with her performance. 

On breeding the step up to a mile should suit her and give her more time to settle. William Buick in my view rides Newmarket better than anyone and the only negative is that she needs to find a few pounds on official ratings to win this.

Fallen Angel is the northern challenger for Karl Burke, and she comes here having won three of her four starts, including the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh. 

She also won the Sweet Solera Stakes on the July course at this venue last summer so she will handle the track and is the clear top-rated filly in the race.

Planet Sport Bet Daily Special: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Fallen Angel finishes 1st or 2nd wins, get a £5 Free Bet

Ramatuelle is the French raider from the stable of Christophe Head, who belongs to the famous racing dynasty that has dominated French racing for a number of decades. 

On breeding Ramatuelle should be suited by the step up in trip and she will also appreciate a sounder surface than she encountered on her seasonal debut at Deauville 26 days ago, when she was edged out by half a length by Charlie Appleby’s Romantic Style.

This is a very strong renewal of the fillies’ Classic and the favourite is undoubtedly Fallen Angel, but based on the trends I am selecting Ramatuelle. 

Suggested best bet: Ramatuelle each-way in the 15:40 at Newmarket (1000 Guineas)


I believe the French filly represents decent value (most overseas horses tend to be underrated in the market), so we will go for an each-way bet on Ramatuelle, and as always, don’t forget to check if any bookmakers are offering extra places.

READ MORE: Newmarket racing tips: Best bets for Sunday May 5

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