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Newbury trends best bet: Chantilly overpriced for strong bid in London Gold Cup

Our resident racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach wraps up his weekly selections by aiming his trends-based analysis at one of the biggest races on Newbury’s Saturday card.

15:00 Newbury: Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap (1 mile 2 furlongs)

We have busy Saturday’s racing action ahead with excellent cards at Newmarket and Newbury and I am tackling the top three-year-old handicap from Newbury. 

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Fifteen runners go to post, but by using the trends below I hope to reduce the field to a more manageable three or four runners:

  • 19/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before 
  • 17/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out 
  • 17/20 – Carried 8st-10lb or more 
  • 16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks 
  • 15/20 – Rated 90 or lower 
  • 14/20 – Winners from stall 8 or lower 
  • 14/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting 
  • 11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 
  •   9/20 – Won last time out 
  •   9/20 – Had won over 1m2f before 
  •   7/20 – Irish bred 
  •   6/20 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here) 
  •   6/20 – Winning favourites 
  •   4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 9) 
  •   4/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton 
  •   3/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston 
  •   3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

All of the best efforts of Chantilly have come on soft or heavy ground and that is why the odds of Aidan O’Brien’s colt are 9/2 and not even money. 

Ryan Moore has a superb record in this race with four wins in the last nine runnings. Both the stable and especially the jockey are in superb form and Galileo progeny like Chantilly can cope with all types of going.

Suggested best bet: Chantilly in the 15:00 at Newbury


Goodwood Odyssey won nicely last time at Sandown in a Class 4, especially when you consider he was short of room and was then hampered. 

David Menuisier’s charge is probably better than the rating allocated despite going up by seven pounds for his win at Sandown, but all that said, I am not sure if that is going to be enough with a move of two class levels.

Poniros was second last time despite striking into himself during the race, and he now moves up three classes and has gone up a pound for that run. 

Ralph Beckett’s stable is in form, but this is likely to need more improvement than Poniros is likely to be able to deliver.

This is an interesting renewal of a Heritage Handicap and one that caught my eye, but not shortlisted by the trends, is the Harry Charlton-trained King’s Gambit, who comes from a stable with a good race record with William Buick booked, albeit having to overcome a 239-day break. 

However, based solely on the trends I am suggesting a win bet on Chantilly, who is available at very generous odds considering his breeding and his future entries in Group 2 and 1 races.

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Newbury and Newmarket on May 18


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