Newbury trends analysis best bet: Captain Teague to lead the way in Challow Hurdle

Our selection for the Welsh National was pulled up like many of his fellow runners with only five finishing on the terrible ground.

On what appears to be a relatively poor day’s racing on Saturday, the big meetings at Newbury and Haydock having mainly small fields.

We are focusing on the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle and using the trends below to try and find the winner in our final race of 2023.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Willmount wins by more than 5 lengths, get a £5 Free Bet

15.00 Newbury: Coral Challow Novices' Hurdle (2 miles 4½ furlongs) 

• 17/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 17/17 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks 
• 17/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out 
• 17/17 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before 
• 15/17 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks 
• 14/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3 
• 13/17 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles before 
• 13/17 – Had won over 2m4f or further (hurdles) before 
• 13/17 – Won last time out 
• 10/17 – Had won a Grade 2 Hurdle race before 
• 10/17 – Winning favourites (7 of the last 8) 
• 9/17 – Aged 5 years-old 
• 8/17 – Irish bred 
• 5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 3 winners) 
• 3/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill 
• 2/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob 
• The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 11/4

Using the trends above I ended up with a shortlist of three runners: Captain Teague, Lookaway and The Jukebox Man.

Captain Teague has already won at Grade 2 level and should stay the trip having run over further last time out. Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race with three winners in the last three runnings and another two winners in the past.

WATCH: Harry Cobden weighs up Captain Teague's chances in his Planet Sport Bet Blog

 

Lookaway comes from a smaller stable but has already won at Grade 2 level. Lookaway has also won at Newbury and over the distance and looks to be value odds, which reflect the stable rather than the horse’s ability.

The Jukebox Man has already won over the trip and remains unbeaten over hurdles. This is a huge step up in class and it is hard to see Harry Redknapp, his owner celebrating a win in this top novices’ race.

A couple of the horses, which were eliminated on the trends include Willmount and Johnnywho and these two are definite threats, especially the former, bearing in mind the strong record of favourites in this race (7 of the last 8).

Based purely on the trends I am suggesting a win bet on Captain Teague, although I must admit I was tempted by Lookaway at bigger odds, as I think he could be better than his price might suggest.

 

Suggested bet: Captain Teague in the 15:00 at Newbury

Good luck and here’s wishing you all a happy, healthy New Year! - Andrew of Fiosrach

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets from Newbury, Haydock and Taunton on December 30