Newbury each-way racing trends tips (1515): Lockdown Norman Fletcher for a place nibble in Betfair Hurdle

15:15 Newbury Betfair Hurdle Premier Handicap

Our selection last weekend drifted dramatically in the betting from 8/1 out to 16/1, which is usually a negative sign, and this proved to be the case with West Balboa finishing eighth.

This is an extremely difficult race to analyse with 25 runners declared and several promising hurdlers in the field, so I will use the trends below to narrow the field for further analysis.

• 21/21 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
• 20/21 – Aged seven or younger
• 19/21 – Rated 130 or higher
• 18/21 – Had raced within the last nine weeks
• 18/21 – Placed in the top three last time out
• 17/21 – Won two to four times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
• 16/21 – Aged either five or six years old
• 16/20 – Went on to run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
• 16/21 – Came from the first seven in the betting
• 16/21 – Winning distance – three lengths or less
• 14/21 – Placed favourites
• 11/21 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
• 11/21 – Came from the top five in the betting
• 10/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
• 10/21 – Irish bred 8/21 – Won last time out
• 8/21 – Aged five years old (including eight of last 17)
• 7/21 – Winning favourites
• 4/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
• 3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (won the race five times)
• 3/21 – Trained by Gary Moore
• 3/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (Three of the last 10)
• 2/21 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (Two of the last 14)
• 2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (Two of the last 11)
• 2/21 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
• 2/21 – Owned by JP McManus
• 1/20 – Went on to win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)

Key trend: 26 of the last 27 winners have been aged seven or younger

Iberico Lord comes from a stable that has won this race five times and Champion Owner JP McManus. Nicky Henderson has multiple entries here, but the jockey booking suggests that Iberico Lord is his main chance. Excuses last time when well beaten, but the ground was too fast for him. The ground is likely to be heavy on Saturday, which should suit Iberico Lord.

Aurigny Mill has won on heavy going, but this is a huge step up in class from the Class 3 he won well at Kempton at Christmas. Aurigny Mill had problems with bruised feet last season and has looked a much better horse this season. He does have to improve again to challenge, but he does look to be a horse on an upward curve.

Kamsinas is a horse that I liked the look of when he won two Grade 2 novice hurdles, but he is unproven on the likely heavy going. If he does handle the going, I do think he has a very good chance at around 20/1. I have had a quick look at his breeding and his sire has won on soft and his damsire won on very soft on a few occasions, so there is hope!

Altobelli was third behind Luccia in the race at Ascot where Iberico Lord finished seventh over the Christmas holidays. Altobelli is a big horse and according to his trainer, he needs some cut in the ground, which he will get here. Big horses usually have big feet, which can act like snowshoes on soft going and they act better on that than most.

Norman Fletcher comes from a stable that has won this race three times in the last ten runnings. He is highly rated by the stable, but the view of Sam Twiston-Davies is he is at his best on decent ground. Norman Fletcher has run well twice on heavy going so that contradicts the jockey’s view and bearing in mind the stable record Norman Fletcher could earn his porridge here! (Sorry could not resist!)

As you would expect with a field of twenty-five runners there are multiple potential winners from outside of the trends shortlist including the Willie Mullins-trained favourite Ocastle Des Mottes, Spirit D’ Aunou and Under Control.

Based on the trends analysis I am suggesting each way bets on Norman Fletcher and Aurigny Mill and look around for extra places from your bookmaker.

Suggested bet: Norman Fletcher each-way in the 1515 at Newbury

Suggested bet: Aurigny Mill each-way in the 1515 at Newbury

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Newbury on February 10