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Musselburgh best bets (1535): Trends point to Capital Theory for bold Queen’s Cup bid

As we ease our way into the Flat season, our resident trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has cast his expert eye over the dozen runners lining up to contest the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh on Saturday.

We had to endure disappointing performances from our two selections in last week’s Lincoln, with The Gatekeeper running best of the two to finish in eighth place. 

This weekend I am sticking to the flat and going up to Scotland for a distance handicap and I am using the trends below to narrow the field:

15.35 Musselburgh: Virgin Bet Queen's Cup (1 mile 6 furlongs)

  • 7/8 – Aged between 5-7 years old 
  • 7/8 – Carried 8st-11lb or more in weight 
  • 6/8 – Didn’t win last time out 
  • 6/8 – Unplaced favourites 
  • 5/8 – Had run at Musselburgh before 
  • 5/8 – Returned a double-figure price 
  • 2/8 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston 
  • 2/8 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope (last 2) 
  • 2/8 – Ridden by Ben Curtis 
  • 1/8 – Winning favourite 
  • Trainer Adam Nicol is 3 from 4 with his 4 year-olds at the track 
  • Trainers Mark Johnston (2), Archie Watson, Ian Williams, JP Shanahan, Brian Ellison and Jim Goldie have won this race before

The minimal trends available for this relatively new race has obviously made our analysis slightly more difficult than with a more established race. 

Nevertheless, we have have managed to narrow down the field of 14 runners to a much more manageable shortlist of three, all of whom are currently available at double-figure prices:

Capital Theory comes from the Johnston stable that boasts a good record in this race and the five-year-old has won at this level previously. 

He usually runs up with the pace and will likely tuck in behind Emiyn and be poised to make his move in the final furlong. 

Jockey Franny Norton is an excellent judge of pace so should be there or thereabouts if Capital Theory is produced fully fit for his seasonal debut.

Suggested best bet: Capital Theory each-way in the 15:35 at Musselburgh

Emiyn is something of a Chester specialist (three of his last four wins have come there) and has not yet really transferred that level of form to other courses, and has also mainly won at a lower level than he faces in this race. 

Zak Wheatley takes off a valuable five pounds, which puts Declan Carroll’s seven-year-old back on a winning mark that was achieved over this trip.

Evaluation has won over the trip, has won at Musselburgh before, and has a good overall winning strike rate on turf. 

However, the Lucinda Russell-trained six-year-old has not won for almost two years and remains two pounds above his last winning mark. Returning to turf might spark a return to winning form, but I would like to have evidence of that before backing.

Outside of the three on the shortlist I have a sneaking suspicion that the winner may come from one of Berkshire Rocco, Yorkindness and Struth, all of whom have the credentials to go well here. 

However, based upon the trends alone I am suggesting an each-way bet on Capital Theory, which is at a decent double-figure price of 16/1 at the time of writing.

READ MORE: Easter Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Best bets for Musselburgh and Haydock on March 30



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