Kempton trends analysis best bet: Circuit Breaker primed to flick the switch to land Queen’s Prize

We managed to land an each-way place from our two runners in Monday’s Irish National with We’llhavewan being heavily backed from 16/1 into 13/2 and at least giving us a run for our money to finish a creditable sixth. 

The eventual winner Intense Raffles looked impressive and is definitely one to consider for the Aintree Grand National next year if the handicap has not hit him too hard by next April.

This weekend it was extremely difficult to find a race with enough historic trends or enough runners to analyse effectively, but I am using the trends below to narrow the field in the Queen's Prize Stayer’s Handicap at Kempton’s all-weather meeting:

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15.15 Kempton: Virgin Bet Queen's Prize Handicap (2 miles)

• 12/12 - Won no more than 5 times 
• 11/12 - Aged between 4-6 years-old 
• 10/12 - Had won over 1 mile 6 furlongs or more
•   9/12 - Did NOT win last time out 
•   9/12 - Had run at Kempton before 
•   9/12 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting 
•   7/12 - Only won between 1-3 times before 
•   7/12 - Rated between 82-89 
•   7/12 - Had won at Kempton in the past 
•   6/12 - Favourites that finished 2nd 
•   2/12 - Trained by Roger Charlton 
•   2/12 – Trained by Charlie Appleby 
•   2/12 – Ridden by Kieran Shoemark 
•   1/12 - Winning favourites

Circuit Breaker has won over course and distance and despite having only had five starts in all formats, he comes here with every chance. 

Since his last outing in September, the four-year-old switched from Ralph Beckett, who thought that the horse should be aimed at this race. 

The yard of new trainer Jonjo O’Neill is in red-hot form and has applied a first-time tongue-tie to combine with the positive booking of James Doyle, who will be riding full of confidence with his recent strike rate of 27%.

Suggested bet: Circuit Breaker each-way in the 15:15 at Kempton

Novel Legend has only run twice on all-weather tracks, including winning over course and distance here 12 months ago. 

James Fanshawe’s five-year-old has been running in far better races on turf and if transferring that ability on to the all weather surface, he could prove hard to beat here. 

Novel Legend ran in the Irish Cesarewitch and the Prix Royal Oak at the back end of last season and was well beaten in both, but those were remarkably high-class races.

Sweet Fantasy had a run over hurdles a month ago, so should be fit for this race, and despite his trainer James Owen suggesting he prefers going left-handed (Kempton is right-handed), he has managed one of his five wins going this way round. 

The stable is in red-hot form with a 26% strike rate in the last 14 days and if Sweet Fantasy copes with the track he should be thereabouts. The five-year-old holds an entry in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup, which shows how highly thought of he is.

Despite the recent change of stable, I am recommending an each-way bet on Circuit Breaker, who looks to be too big a price. As ever, don’t forget to check for bookmakers that are offering extra places combined with decent odds.

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing Tips: Best bets for Kempton and Chelmsford on April 6