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Kempton best bet: Trends analysis pinpoints Blackjack Magic for Coral Trophy bid

Our resident horse racing trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has run his expert eye over one of Saturday's big races at Kempton to provide us with his best-value bet of the day.

15.37 Kempton: Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (3 miles)

Last weekend our selection Irish Hill finished fifth, so a small return for those who got the 9/1 before the price got hammered on Saturday morning.

At the time of writing, there was a limited selection of decent races to choose from on Saturday’s card, with several small fields and Newcastle not certain of being on.

Planet Sport Bet Daily Special: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Lord Baddesley finishes in the first 3 places, get a £5 Free Bet

We have plumped for this competitive-looking edition of the Coral Trophy at Kempton, and have used the trends below to reduce the field of 12 runners to three for further analysis:

  • 18/21 – Finished in the top 5 last time out 
  • 18/21 – Aged 9 or younger 
  • 17/21 – Rated 139 or higher 
  • 15/21 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks 
  • 15/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting 
  • 14/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more 
  • 13/21 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before 
  • 13/21 – Carried 10-13 or more 
  • 13/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) 
  • 13/21 – Came from the top 4 in the betting 
  • 12/21 – Rated between 139 and 150 
  • 11/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks 
  • 9/21 – Carried 11-5 or more 
  • 9/21 – Had won at least 4 times over fences 
  • 8/21 – Won last time out 
  • 7/21 – Aged 8 years old 
  • 6/21 – French bred 
  • 5/21 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced) 
  • 4/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out 
  • 4/21 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner) 
  • 3/21 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
  • 3/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies 
  • 3/21 – Trained by Tom George 
  • 2/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
  • 2/21 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out 
  • 2/21 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (2 of the last 7)
  •  2/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 8) 
  • 2/21 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard (won it 4 times in all) 

 

There are several challengers in this race that were eliminated by the trends, and they include Forward Plan, Bowtogreatness and the Pual Nicholls-trained Il Ridoto, who is expected to go well under Harry Cobden. 

WATCH: Harry Cobden assesses his chances on board Il Ridoto

Blackjack Magic has won on soft and heavy going and has won at Graded level, beating Threeunderthrufive (who  won a Grade 3 last weekend and is a quiet fancy for the Grand National) in the process. 

Anthony Honeyball’s charge has a good chance here, where his jumping should prove to be a major asset in the final stages. Sam Twiston Davies takes the ride, and he has a good record in this race, having ridden the winner on three occasions.

Suggested bet: Blackjackmagic each-way in the 15:37 at Kempton

 

 

Tweed Skirt has won over the trip and once on heavy ground, although her best form has been on good-to-soft ground. I would have been very keen on Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old, who has won over course and distance if the ground were better.

It can be argued that she has won on heavy, but that was in a small field  National Hunt flat race run over half this trip.

Flegmatik put up his best performance last time when winning over course and distance, but he is now six pounds worse off.

The Skelton yard’s nine-year-old also appears to be ground dependent, which makes his chances slimmer here. His odds of 5/1 seem to be skinny to me, considering the ground is likely to be soft at best.

From that shortlist our final selection based solely on trends is Blackjack Magic, who is proven over both trip and going and I suggest an each-way bet that takes advantage of any extra places on offer.


READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Kempton, Southwell and Newcastle on February 24

 

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