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Irish Grand National tips (1700): We’llhavewan and Where It All Began can force frame finish at Fairyhouse

There’s a bumper racecard to enjoy in the UK and Ireland on Easter Monday, and trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has focused his expert eye on the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.

17.00 Fairyhouse: BoyleSports Irish Grand National Chase (3 miles 5 furlongs)

The combination of the huge 21-runner field and expected heavy ground looks likely to extend the recent sequence of big-priced winners (average winner 27/1 over the last twenty years!) and I am using the trends below to narrow the big field to three or four runners:

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  • 18/20 – Carried under 11st 
  • 18/20 – Won over at least 3 miles before
  • 18/20 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less 
  • 17/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks 
  • 17/20 – Aged 9 or younger 
  • 16/20 – Irish bred 
  • 16/20 – Carried under 10st-9lb  
  • 16/20 – Won by an Irish-based trainer 
  • 16/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting 1
  • 15/20 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price 
  • 13/20 – Carried under 10st-7lb 
  • 13/20 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously 
  • 12/20 – Unplaced favourites 
  • 11/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out 
  • 11/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks 
  • 10/20 – Rated between 130-137 
  •   4/20 – Won by an English-based trainer 
  •   3/20 – Ran at Navan last time out 
  •   3/20 – Won last time out 
  •   3/20 – Winning favourites (3 in the last 9) 
  •   2/20 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2007 & 2014) 
  • Trainer Dermot A McLoughlin has trained 2 of the last 3 
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has trained 2 of the last 4 
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has only won the race once (2018, General Principle) 
  • 11 of the last 20 winners returned 20/1+ 
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 27/1 
  • The only 3 winners since 2000 to carry more than 11st were I Am Maximus (2023), Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)

 

Using the trends above we are left with a shortlist of four runners: Where It All Began, Daily Present, Where’s Frankie and We’llhavewan.

Where It All Began stays and acts on heavy ground and has one of the top jockeys booked with the in-form Jack Kennedy. 

Gordon Elliott’s eight-year-old has already won at Listed level, so should not have to improve much to compete here, and this real test of stamina on heavy ground should suit him completely off what appears to be a fair mark.

Suggested bet (1): Where It All Began each-way in the 17:00 at Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National)

Daily Present finished just behind Where It All Began in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time out and has already won at Fairyhouse, albeit over hurdles. 

The Paul Nolan-trained seven-year-old has proved that he copes well in a big field and has run well on soft ground although he is untried in the more testing heavy conditions that he could face here.

Where’s Frankie has a strong record at Fairyhouse (four wins and three places from 11 visits), with his last win here in January, and he arrives here fresh from a hard-earned win at Leopardstown last time out 29 days ago. 

Karl Thornton’s eight-year-old comes here off a good run of form, and although he is a bit more experienced than most of the shortlist he has the credentials to run into a place here.

We’llhavewan comes from the all-conquering Willie Mullins’ stable and gets in here off a very low mark, while his capable jockey takes off a valuable five pounds, which could prove to be very valuable in the final stages. 

The nine-year-old was well beaten by Where It All Began in a race at Punchestown last time out in early March, so will need to improve to reverse that form and win here.

Suggested bet (2): We'llhavewan each-way in the 17:00 at Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National)

There are several fancied runners in the higher end of the weights including Nick Rockett, Senior Chief and Intense Raffles, all of whom come here with strong chances. The trends work against them, however, and they are eliminated on the weight trend for horses carrying more than 10st-13lb.

Sticking to the trends, therefore, I am suggesting each-way bets on both Where It All Began and We’llhavewan, and as usual we recommend shopping around for the best prices and extra places.


READ MORE: Kempton racing tips: Best bets for Easter Monday April 1

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