Haydock trends best bet: Queen Of The Pride to reign supreme in Lester Piggott Stakes

15:00 Haydock: Betfred Nifty 50 Lester Piggott Fillies' Stakes (1 mile 4 furlongs)

Our selection for last week’s Epsom Dash finished down the field, so hopefully we can get back to winning ways this weekend at Haydock.

This competitive Group 3 involves a much bigger field than you would normally see in a race of this level, so I have used the trends below to try and reduce the 14 runners to a more manageable group for deeper analysis:

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• 20/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before 
• 19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 18/21 – Rated 92 or higher 
• 17/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out 
• 16/21 – Aged 4 years-old 
• 16/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 
• 15/21 – Placed favourites 
• 14/21 – Had won over 1m4f before 
• 14/21 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower 
•   6/21 – Had run at Haydock before 
•   6/21 – Winning favourites
•   6/21 – Won last time out 
•   2/21 – Trained by Roger Varian 
•   3/21 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 5) 
•   2/21 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (last 2) 
•   2/21 – Trained by John Gosden 
• The last 8 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting 
• The last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5

The  above trends left us with a shortlist of four runners:

Lady Boba has only had five runs and has never been out of the top three, converting two of those frame finishes into wins. 

My only concern for Ralph Beckett’s four-year-old is the underfoot conditions, as her two victories have been on soft or very soft going, and while the forecast is for the odd shower, the amount is unlikely to have a major effect on the going currently listed as good.

Madame Ambassador is a typical Charlie Johnston horse, having had 25 runs despite being just five years old, so clearly has plenty of experience and has won over the trip toboot. 

She beat Lady Boba when giving her a stone  at Newmarket last October, and now meets her off level weights, but I am not sure she can win over this distance at Group 3 level.

Night Sparkle has won five times, including once over hurdles, and all her wins have been over longer trips, and is now 11 pounds higher in the weights than her best win.

I am also not sure if the Andrew Balding-trained five-year-old has the finishing kick to win over this shorter trip unless she tries to make all to stretch her rivals’ stamina before the final push to the line.

Queen Of The Pride has only had three runs, winning a minor race over a shorter trip at Leicester last September and then finishing second on her seasonal debut in a Listed race over this trip at Goodwood last month. 

The four-year-old Gosden-trained filly has a wide draw, which is not ideal, but in her favour she has the added bonus of being ridden by Oisin Murphy, who is well equipped to bring the best out of his ride.

Suggested best bet: Queen Of The Pride each-way in the 15:00 at Haydock

There are other threats in what promises to be a very competitive race, including Tom Marquand on board Sea Theme from the same Haggas stable that has won this race three times in the last five years, and Hughie Morrison’s capable four-year-old, Mistral Star also merits consideration. 

Based on the trends, however, I am suggesting an each-way bet on Queen Of The Pride and hope that her jockey can tuck her in behind the front three or four before making a move in the final furlong. 

I think Queen of the Pride has more scope to improve than most of these and looks worthy of an each-way dabble, with the familiar caveat of making sure you look around for the best odds and extra places.

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Haydock and Beverley on June 8