Haydock trends analysis best bet: Quickening ground should boost Aztec Empire’s chances

3.00 Haydock Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap (1 mile 6 furlongs) 

The Old Borough Cup has been around since 1873 and remains one of the top handicap races run at Haydock. 

Last year’s winner was 15/2 shot Island Brave, who had also won it in 2021 (11/1), but is not entered this time so there will be no hat-trick.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Aztec Empire wins, get a £5 Free Bet!

At the time of writing there are fifteen runners scheduled to line up and I have used the trends below to reduce the field:

• 19/20 – Had won over at least 1 mile 4 furlongs 
• 19/20 – Had won at least twice before
• 18/20 – Had run 4 or more times that season
• 16/20 – Rated 90 to 101
• 15/20 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years old
• 15/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out
• 13/20 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
• 12/20 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
• 12/20 – Had run over 1 mile 6 furlongs before
• 11/20 – Ran at Haydock before
• 10/20 – Carried 9 stone or more
•   8/20 – Ran at York last time out
•   6/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
•   4/20 – Trained by the Johnston yard
•   2/20 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
•     2/5 – Trained by Ian Williams
•     2/2 – Trained by Heather Main

After applying the trends above, I was left with a shortlist of three runners from the original fifteen: Aztec Empire, Mr Curiosity and Forza Orta.

Suggested bet: Aztec Empire in the 15:00 at Haydock

Aztec Empire is likely to dispute favouritism in the race and has good form on turf without winning, but his last two performances put him in the mix here. 

He finished second behind Forza Orta (beaten a neck) and now has a pound in hand and his previous run was third behind Sweet William, who was then runner-up in the Ebor. 

Aztec Empire should be in the places at least as he still seems to be improving on turf, and he should appreciate the going and probably more so if the ground gets quicker.

Mr Curiosity in contrast has already won three from ten starts on turf, but those wins were in lesser races, although one was in a Class 2. 

Mr Curiosity is very well bred and has potential to improve; however, he did finish further behind Sweet William than his rival Aztec Empire did. 

The main concern for Mr Curiosity is the potential of fast going, as his best form has been with some cut in the ground. If the course gets a heavy downpour, then I would be more interested in his chances.

Forza Orta, as mentioned above, beat Aztec Empire by a neck at York and now is a pound worse off; however, that was over a longer trip. 

All four of Forza Orta’s wins have been at York and Hamilton and he has a low draw here, which tends to be a disadvantage even over this extended trip.

I have ruled out Forza Orta due to his low draw and it will take a top class ride by Rowan Scott to get over to a better position without losing too much ground. 

I would like Mr Curiosity if the ground was softer than good and his odds are attractive and would allow us to play each way, but I think the conditions will suit Aztec Empire more if the ground stays good or quicker. 

I am suggesting a win bet on Aztec Empire, as I think he is still improving and can enjoy his first turf win here.

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