Haydock top tips: Bold bid expected from course-distance winner Tacarib Bay

14:45 Haydock: trustatrader.com Handicap (7 furlongs)

Wide draws needn’t be a concern in this race, as Safe Voyage proved when landing the second of his two wins in this race from stall 14/14. Indeed, the last four renewals have been won from stalls 14/14, 7/13, 8/10 and 9/11, so connections of Tacarib Bay won’t be overly concerned about his stall 10/10.

Much more significant is the five-year-old’s course record, which reads 112, and the only one of the 21 rivals able to beat him around here has been the top-class Group 1 winner Triple Time, and that was in a Group 3 event over a mile.

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Tacarib Bay has won around here over both six and seven furlongs and his course-distance success came as a three-year-old in a Class 2 handicap on soft ground in which he beat 11 rivals off today’s mark of 103.
He has since indicated that he possesses at least as much ability nowadays by showing the speed to win a Listed prize over six furlongsat Newcastle last November.

Rated 106 at the time, he is now back down to his course-distance winning mark and these conditions are perfect for him, as his two turf wins have both been achieved on soft ground at this venue, so this race will have been carefully targeted.

Suggested best bet: Tacarib Bay in the 14:45 at Haydock

He should be ready to peak following an outing over an extended mile on tapeta last month, his first run for 68 days, an outing that should have put him straight for his first turf run since early August last year.

His last turf run over this trip saw him finish sixth of 24 at Ascot last summer, a split-field race in which he won the far-side race by a clear two lengths off today’s mark of 103, even though the good ground would have been livelier than he prefers, and he also missed the break.

This looks far less competitive and he has his ground in his favour again today, as well as his favourite track, so a big run looks on the cards.

• Tips and analysis provided by Steve Jones who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr

Of the others, Earls is definitely a justifiable favourite on current form because, as well as being the only one of these to even reach a place on his latest outing, Earls was last seen finishing an agonisingly close second of 16 (beaten a nose) in a valuable handicap on testing ground at the Curragh exactly a week ago.

That latest run was over a mile but his last success, which came at almost exactly this time last year, was achieved over seven furlongs at Cork where the going was again testing, and it saw him beat 18 rivals to win the Mallow Handicap, a very valuable premier handicap which attracted runners rated up to 102.

His Cork win came off 85, so he has to be a major player under similar circumstances off 87, especially given his current form, and from the rails position, this Irish raider has plenty going for him

Next best bet: Earls in the 14:45 at Haydock

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