Epsom trends best bet: All signs suggest Koy Koy can land big-field handicap

Last weekend saw our selection trade at odds-on during the race before deciding to veer across the course and end up finishing second.

The opening day of the two-day Derby meeting has a number of mouth-watering races in prospect, including the fillies’ classic The Oaks. 

Ahead of that, I am looking at the competitive 16-runner handicap run over just further than a mile.

14.35 Epsom Trustatrader Handicap (1 mile 113 yards)

I am using the trends below to reduce the field to a more manageable number of runners for analysis:

• 18/20 – Had won over at least a mile before 
• 17/20 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks 
• 15/20 - Aged 4 or 5 years old 
• 14/20 – Had won between 2-5 times before 
• 14/20 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower 
• 14/20 – Placed last time out 
• 12/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 
• 12/20 – Placed favourites 
• 12/20 – Irish bred 
• 10/20 – Carried 9st-1lb or more 
•   9/20 – Raced at the track before 
•   6/20 – Won last time out 
•   4/20 – Raced at Sandown last time out 
•   4/20 – Winning favourites 
•   3/20 – Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie) 
•   2/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding 
•   2/20 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 6) 
• 11 of the last 15 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting

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After the trends have been applied, I am left with a shortlist of three runners:

Al Mubhir ran in a couple of the most competitive handicaps last season but did not manage to win, but remains on an unfavourably high rating that is still seven pounds above his last winning mark. 

It might require a drop of several pounds before the William Haggas-trained five-year-old next visits the winner’s enclosure again or to continue in Listed races where he has run well, usually with today’s rider, Tom Marquand, at the reins.

Koy Koy, like Al Mubhir, has suffered from a high rating due to his consistency and has not looked like winning on his last few starts. 

George Boughey’s five-year-old gelding has been ridden by William Buick twice before, finishing second and winning a Class 2 off a two pounds lower mark. The reigning champion jockey has a good record in this race with two recent wins on board GK Chesterton in 2017 and Totally Charming for Boughey two years ago.

Suggested best bet: Koy Koy in the 14:35 at Epsom

Two Tempting would be shorter odds if this were being run at an all-weather track, as his record is much better away from turf, with Jonathan Portman trying him with six different jockeys in his last seven outings. 

That said, the five-year-old did manage to win on turf two starts back when winning a Class 3 handicap at Ascot, so he may have improvement to come on that surface, while his previous experience of the Epsom track could be another plus.

As with all big-field handicaps, this one is difficult to decipher, but looking solely at the trends I am suggesting a win bet on Koy Koy, who looks the pick of the bunch on that basis.

READ MORE: Friday ITV racing tips: Best bets for day 1 of Epsom’s Derby meeting on May 31