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Epsom trends best bet: Night On Earth ticks all the right boxes to land Epsom Dash

Don’t blink or you might miss this famous five-furlong sprint, and it’s certainly given our resident trends analyst Andrew of Fisorach plenty of food for thought as he provides his best bets for us.

15.45 Epsom: Aston Martin "Dash" Handicap (5 furlongs)

A steep downhill trajectory makes the Epsom Dash the fastest sprint handicap in the UK, and although there is juice in the ground it will still be a very quick race. 

We have another big field to navigate, so as usual I will try to narrow it down by using the trends below:

  • 19/21– Didn’t win last time out 
  • 19/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks 
  • 13/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks 
  • 17/21– Unplaced favourites 
  • 16/21 – Carried 9st-1lb or less in weight 
  • 15/21 – Aged between 5 and 8 years old (inc.) 
  • 15/21 – Came from stall 8 or higher 
  • 14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting 
  • 12/21 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won) 
  •   5/21 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame 
  •   1/21 – Winning favourites

Alligator Alley was 12th in this race last season and runs off an eight-pound lower mark here, which may mean he is closer at the finish. 

David O’Meara’s stable and jockey Adam Farragher are in decent form at the moment, and Alligator Alley has previously won a Listed race over this trip. 

The ground would need to dry out a lot for Alligator Alley to win this, while our winning trends suggest that his low draw is unlikely to be an advantage.

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Live In The Moment finished five places further back in 17th last year's renewal, and although he is four pounds lower in the weights plus a further five pounds that his claiming jockey takes off, I am not sure that even the overall nine-pound reduction will put Live In The Moment in the mix here. 

Alice Haynes’ yard is going through a quiet time at the moment, and although Live In The Moment has won at Class 2 level his recent form has been at a lower level, and he is easier to oppose from three pounds out of the handicap.

That brings us to Night On Earth, who is a course-and-distance winner, having landed a 12-runner handicap here at Class 3 level in April. 

The Ian Williams-trained six-year-old has won off as much as ten pounds higher in the past, so coupled with Morgan Cole’s five-pound claim, he lines up off a relatively low mark here. 

Night On Earth has enjoyed multiple successes under claiming jockeys in the past, while his recent course form is a major plus, that could well help him take advantage of a favourable high draw.

Suggested best bet: Night On Earth in the 17:50 at Epsom


As you would expect in a big handicap, there are multiple horses with realistic chances here, and while the likes of Silky Wilkie and Clarendon House look dangerous despite being high in the weights, their prices reflect their chances and appear too short in such a competitive handicap. 

With that in mind, based on the trends analysis I am suggesting an each-way bet on Night On Earth, and as always in races like this, be sure to look around for extra places and the best prices.

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for day 1 of Epsom’s Derby Festival on June 1

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