Doncaster trends analysis racing tip: Charlie Uberalles set to impress in Grimthorpe Chase

15.40 Doncaster: Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3 miles 2 furlongs)

Unfortunately, our selection last weekend, Blackjack Magic, took a tumble at the last in the Coral Trophy at Kempton having been backed in from 9-1 to 4-1 favourite, although in truth he was already beaten at that point after also making a mistake at the previous fence.

This weekend we are homing in on the Grimthorpe Chase, which was won by 18/1 shot Moroder a year ago. This year’s edition offers a competitive 13-runner affair, and we will use recent trends to reduce the number of runners further. 

• 18/19 – Aged 8 or older 
• 18/19 – Won over at least 3 miles (fences) 
• 16/19 – Won no more than 4 times over fences 
• 16/19 – Ran within the last 8 weeks 
• 15/19 – Carried under 11 stone in weight 
• 14/19 – Aged 9 or older 
• 13/19 – Rated 132 or less 
• 12/19 – From the top 3 in the betting 
• 12/19 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting 
• 11/19 – Irish bred 
• 10/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out 
•   8/19 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners) 
•   7/19 – Won their last race 
•   4/19 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners) 
•   2/19 – Winning Favourites 
•     3/9 – Won by 8 year-olds

Using the trends above we have reduced the field to the following three runners:

Charlie Uberalles was third here in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Grade 3 level last month, which was impressive in only his fifth chase start. 

Dianne Sayers’ eight-year-old has won at this level and looks to be progressive, and despite running impressively in that Grade 3 last time he was only raised a pound by the handicapper and should go close here.

Suggested best bet: Charlie Uberalles in the 15:40 at Doncaster

Docpickedme has won at Doncaster but has never won a race at Class 2 level and now needs to do so off a career-high mark. 

A positive is that Docpickedme has won on all types of going and it is likely that the going will change with rain forecast for Friday. Runs here after a wind operation, which in theory should improve his breathing and that is especially important over a long trip such as this.

Java Point won last time over three miles in a decent Class 2 contest at Sandown and was running on at the finish, which suggests he should stay further. 

He has not won at Doncaster but has run well finishing second and he has also won off this mark, so should be there or thereabouts again.

There ate plenty lining up with a decent chance here, of course, but overall analysis leads me to suggest an each-way bet on Charlie Uberalles, who looks to have more scope for improvement than most of his competitors - and as usual, be sure to look around for additional places from your bookmakers.

READ MORE: Harry Cobden assesses his seven Saturday rides at Newbury in his Planet Sport Bet blog